AAfCW 2014 Volunteer Update #13

This is the thirteenth weekly update by the Audubon Alliance for Coastal Waterbirds (AAfCW) for the 2014 season. Today's update includes reports of Piping Plover, American Oystercatcher, Least Tern and Common Tern from June 23 through 4:00 p.m. on June 30 with sightings of birds by volunteers and staff spanning that period.
 

Informational updates:

Several fireworks celebrations are taking place in Connecticut this week and we could use your help! Email us at ctwaterbirds@gmail.com if you can be at Stratford's Short Beach, Milford Point, or Sandy/Morse Points in West Haven on the evening of July 3. Our staff will be on these beaches and at other locations along with CT DEEP and the more help we can get the more we can do to ensure a successful evening for our birds while continuing our outreach and education efforts. Thank you!

Survey and monitoring updates:

Piping Plover 

3 pairs, 2 adults, 3 hatchlings, 1 nest at Sandy Point Stonington on 6/23
2 pairs, 2 adults, 2 hatchlings, 2 fledglings at Harkness Memorial State Park on 6/23
14 adults, 8 hatchlings at Milford Point on 6/23
9 pairs, 21 hatchlings, 4 fledglings at Milford Point on 6/23
5 pairs, 8 hatchlings, 4 fledglings at Griswold Point on 6/24
7 pairs, 11 hatchlings, 4 fledglings, 1 nest at Griswold Point on 6/24
6 pairs, 8 hatchlings, 1 nest at Bluff Point on 6/24
2 pairs, 2 hatchlings at Mumford Cove on 6/24
3 pairs, 5 adults, 1 nest at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/24
1 pair, 4 hatchlings at Shell Avenue Milford on 6/25
1 pair, 4 hatchlings at Shell Avenue Milford on 6/25
4 pairs, 2 adults, 5 hatchlings at Bluff Point on 6/25
1 pair, 4 hatchlings at Short Beach on 6/25
7 pairs, 3 hatchlings, 7 fledglings, 2 nests at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/25

4 pairs, 1 adult, 7 hatchlings, 1 nest at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/25

7 adults, 2 hatchlings, 10 fledglings at Griswold Point on 6/25
15 adults, 8 hatchlings, 5 fledglings at Milford Point on 6/26
3 pairs, 10 hatchlings, 1 nest at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/26
4 adults at Pleasure Beach on 6/26
9 adults, 9 fledglings, 1 nest at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/26
1 pair, 4 hatchlings at Shell Avenue Milford on 6/27
1 pair, 4 hatchlings at Short Beach on 6/27
1 pair, 2 hatchlings at Long Beach on 6/27

1 adult at Pleasure Beach on 6/27

18 adults, 3 hatchlings, 2 fledglings at Griswold Point on 6/27
1 pair, 1 nest at Pleasure Beach on 6/28
1 pair, 4 hatchlings at Short Beach on 6/28
1 pair, 4 hatchlings at Shell Avenue Milford on 6/29
12 adults, 8 hatchlings, 8 fledglings at Milford Point on 6/29
1 pair, 4 hatchlings at Short Beach on 6/29

American Oystercatcher
7 pairs, 1 adult, 5 fledglings at Sandy Point Stonington on 6/23
2 adults at Shore Rock on 6/23
2 adults at Milford Point on 6/23
2 pairs, 1 hatchling, 1 nest at Milford Point on 6/23
1 pair, 1 fledgling at Quinnipeag Rock on 6/24
1 pair, 1 nest at Mumford Cove on 6/24

1 pair at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/24

1 adult at Long Beach on 6/24
1 pair at Ram Island on 6/25
1 pair, 1 adult at Bluff Point on 6/25
1 adult, 2 hatchlings at Branford Harbor Channel Marker on 6/25
1 pair at Green Island on 6/25
1 pair, 1 fledgling at Umbrella Island on 6/25
1 adult at Kelsey Island on 6/25
3 pairs, 2 nests at Faulkner Island on 6/25

1 pair, 1 adult at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/25

1 pair, 2 hatchlings at Vincent Island on 6/25

1 adult at Greenway Island on 6/25

1 adult at Fish Islands on 6/25

1 pair, 5 adults at Thimble Islands on 6/26
1 pair, 1 nest at Lewis Island on 6/26
3 pairs, 1 fledgling, 1 nest at Milford Point on 6/26
1 adult at Long Beach on 6/26
4 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/26
1 pair, 1 nest at Duck Island on 6/27
1 pair, 1 fledgling at Salt Island on 6/27
7 pairs, 1 adult, 2 hatchlings, 2 nests at Menunketesuck Island on 6/27
1 adult at Short Beach on 6/27
2 adults at Pleasure Beach on 6/28
15 adults, 1 fledgling at Milford Point on 6/29

Least Tern

50 adults at Milford Point on 6/23
25 pairs, 10 adults, 25 nests at Milford Point on 6/23
45 adults at Griswold Point on 6/24
30 pairs, 10 adults, 30 nests at Griswold Point on 6/24
3 pairs, 2 adults, 10 nests at Bluff Point on 6/24
2 pairs, 2 nests at Mumford Cove on 6/24

1 adult at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/24

2 adults at Silver Sands State Park on 6/25
4 adults at Short Beach on 6/25
3 pairs, 4 adults, 2 nests at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/25
3 pairs, 1 adult, 3 nests at Bluff Point on 6/25

1 pair, 4 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/25

2 adults at Long Beach on 6/25

4 adults at Vincent Island on 6/25

2 pairs, 3 hatchlings at Sasco Hill Beach on 6/26
2 adults at Silver Sands State Park on 6/26
40 adults at Milford Point on 6/26
1 pair, 1 nest at Pleasure Beach on 6/26
1 pair, 1 nest at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/26
4 adults, 2 nests at Pleasure Beach on 6/27
2 pairs, 4 adults, 1 nest at Pleasure Beach on 6/28

6 adults at Long Beach on 6/29

25 adults at Milford Point on 6/29

Common Tern

24 adults at Thimble Islands on 6/20
11 adults at Sandy Point Stonington on 6/23
1 adult at Milford Point on 6/23
1 pair, 4 adults at Milford Point on 6/23
3 pairs at Griswold Point on 6/24
2 pairs at Bluff Point on 6/24
2 pairs, 2 adults at Umbrella Island on 6/25

5 pairs, 6 nests at Vincent Island on 6/25

5 adults at Thimble Islands on 6/26
2 adults at Milford Point on 6/26
1 pair at Sandy/Morse Points on 6/26
1 adult at Short Beach on 6/27

This concludes update #13 through 6/30/14 as of 5:00 p.m.

Surf Craft At The Mingei Museum San Diego

And in the absolutely essential category- Richard Kenvin has curated a new show for the Mingei Museum in San Diego which is currently open. It features a selection of aquatic planing craft that you just will not find anywhere else. It's far more than just a historic collection, there's a very definite and carefully thought out design thread followed here, and you really owe it to yourself to go see it if you are anywhere within reach. Make a day of it, look at the boards then get in the water all inspired. 

Here's the official museum blurb:

 

On View Through January 11, 2015People have made surfboards for centuries. Standing alone, these boards are often striking examples of functional design. Together, they tell a compelling story about the evolution of an important American art form. Traditional craft, cutting-edge engineering and minimalist art converge in the Museum’s new exhibition devoted to surfboards built from the late 1940s to the present day.
SURF CRAFT – Design and the Culture of Board Riding opens on the first day of summer, June 21, 2014. SURF CRAFT will be a unique surfboard exhibition exploring board design from a previously unexamined perspective: in the context of Soetsu Yanagi’s mingei philosophy of the importance of craft. Through this lens, the exhibition will capture the influences behind American design in board riding, from the alaia boards of ancient Hawaii, to obscure surf bathing boards of England, Japan and Africa, to post-war hydrodynamic planing hulls of Southern California. Innovative board-shapers and surfers of the past and present will be highlighted, including legendary surfer Bob Simmons, who died at Windansea in La Jolla in 1954, and renowned San Diegan Carl Ekstrom.
Guest curator and surf historian Richard Kenvin will author the 176-page hardcover book of the same title – which will be co-published by Marquand Books and MIT Press and will include 150 historic and contemporary photographs.

More on the book soon too, and the Mingei is at 1439 El Prado, San Diego, CA 92101 and open Tuesday through Sunday. As much as I enjoyed my recent jaunt to foreign soil, it meant I missed a few excellent cultural events involving dance, music and art, including the opening of this which was disappointing. Don't miss out yourself....

Big gold ring return

Every once in a while when beach or shallow water hunting, you get to make a complete stranger very happy by reuniting them with a piece of lost jewelry. 
My recent blogs have been about small gold, but as you can see by taking a look on the "Finds pages" of my websites, I find plenty of big gold.
I found this 1.2 ounce 18K gold ring with a nice center diamond earlier in the year, I tracked down the poor guy who lost the ring and made his vacation in south Florida have a happier ending. 

I received a handsome reward for returning the gold ring,  more money than I would have received if I had chosen to scrap the ring. 
The person I returned the ring too, wishes to remain anonymous and I will respect his wishes. 
As you would expect, this big gold ring made a loud clanking in my scoop when I first recovered it.
It is always great to see a large chunk of gold in your scoop basket, and as I have written in my recent blogs, big gold is easy to find when you have no problem finding small gold. 
My return count for 2014 stands at two gold college rings, three wedding bands, two iphones and a heck of a nice solitaire diamond ladies ring. 
I look at these "Returns" as payback for the all the really nice pieces of jewelry I find that are not possible to return. 
Florida is a top tourist destination, people come from all over the world and leave some amazing pieces of jewelry on the beach and in the water.
I did not have many good experiences in the past when returning stuff to people, but some of my recent experiences of returning lost jewelry to grateful people have more than made up for past returns. 
It can be very rewarding being a beach and water gold prospector, but sometimes it is just as rewarding putting a smile on a strangers face. 

First impressions of the new Minelab SDC 2300

I have just returned home from spending two days at the Minelab SDC 2300 pre launch party at Kellyco metal detectors in Winter Park central Florida. 
It was a good opportunity to handle and test the new Minelab metal detector on a variety of small gold jewelry targets in the sandy test bed at Kellyco. 
My first impressions of the SDC 2300 are how compact the metal detector is and how sensitive it is to small gold targets. 
For someone like me who travels with a metal detector on vacation, the waterproof SDC 2300 is going to be easy to put in my carry on luggage or back pack, we sometimes spend our family vacations on Caribbean cruises and I beach and water hunt in different ports of call.
I was helping at the SDC 2300 launch party with the competition hunts, I figured I needed at least a day before hand to get to grips with the new metal detector.
I figured wrong!  it took me 10 minutes to become comfortable with the SDC 2300, the new pulse induction metal detector is so simple to operate, a real turn on and go gold machine.  
There is nothing complicated about the SDC 2300, unfold it, turn it on, set the sensitivity control to a preset level, noise cancel, set the threshold, ground balance and away you go.
My fellow training partner Alan the president of the local metal detecting club and I, conducted several simple tests to see if the SDC 2300 was going to be a good choice for gold jewelry hunting on the beach. 
Alan placed a thin gold chain ( no pendant) stretched out in a straight line on the sand, the SDC 2300 rang out loud and clear on the gold chain, good sign number one!! 
I placed a tiny gold ear ring back and gold post ear ring on the sand, again the SDC 2300 easily detected the small pieces of gold jewelry. 
We also detected a quarter coin on top of the sand with the eight inch mono coil 18 inches above the quarter, a very impressive air test. 
After an hour spent folding, unfolding and using the new metal detector we both had enough training on the SDC 2300 to confidently assist people testing and taking part in the competition hunts the following day. 
During one of the competition hunts yesterday, a guy approached us with some tiny gold flakes in a small glass bottle. 
The test was to see if the SDC 2300 could detect the tiny gold flakes in the bottle, in front of several witness's the SDC 2300 detected the very small gold flakes. 
From my limited time using the new SDC 2300, I can see this waterproof metal detector being an asset to gold jewelry hunters on the beach. 
I ordered an SDC 2300 and look forward to having another treasure hunting tool to help me recover those difficult targets to detect on the beach, diamond stud ear rings and gold chains. 

5 details I love

great collection of Florentine trays

vibrant flowers in an all white room

a group of vintage bottles simply staged 

oh, how I love leopard and antique gilded mirrors 

a faux bamboo mirror brightened up in turquoise...

more pretty vignettes and source info found here.

ciao! Fabiana

vanity fair

glamorous and feminine, just sitting at a vanity table makes you feel pretty

a simple collection of your treasured toiletries is all you need

flowers are always a perfect touch

“A woman who doesn't wear perfume has no future.” 

―

 Coco Chanel

"It's not vanity to feel you have a right to be beautiful."

     Elle Macpherson

via

ciao! Fabiana

IT'S YOUR MOST IMPORTANT TIME OF THE DAY

If you desire to have a fulfilling and fruitful life, you need to read this. Jesus said in John 15:5 “I am the vine; you are the branches. If you remain in me and I in you, you will bear much fruit; apart from me you can do nothing." He wants you to spend time with Him and stay connected with Him each day. Why? Because it's the only way to a fulfilling and fruitful life.

But knowing how busy life can be, let me share with you how you can find time for the Lord each day. This article first appeared in my former blog "Texts and Trends."

How then can you find time for the Lord when your day is just filled with so much activity?

In the Gospel of Mark chapter one, Jesus was seen preaching all morning. In the afternoon, he heals Peter’s mother in law. And just when it looks like he can kick back and relax, someone comes over to the house. And says, "Lord, I saw what you did in church this morning for that demon possessed man! Can you do the same thing for my kid?" And then someone else comes over and says, "Lord, is it true that you can heal diseases? My wife has been sick for a long time. And I don’t know what else to do anymore. Please help her anyway you can!" And the Bible says in Mark 1:32 that pretty soon, the whole town was standing outside the door. And Jesus loved them. And touched them. And healed them way into the night.

 

I’m sure that when Jesus finally crawled into bed, he was drained. Perhaps some of you fall into bed every night feeling that way. I get to talk a lot to moms and dads, and I can hardly believe how busy it can be to many.  Most work during the day and weekends and then the rest revolves around the kids. Basketball practice on Mondays. Tae Kwon Do Clubs on Tuesdays. Wednesday is church youth night, small groups and choir practice. Thursday is chill out night with office friends. Friday night is practice night or prayer meeting. Saturday is game day for the kids. And after church on Sunday, you flop down on the couch to watch football. Thank God that there’s at least one three hour window during the week when you actually get to relax. But then you need to get up and clean the house. You listen to one of the kids complain about what you made for supper. You go to bed. And start all over again the next day. The question is, how do you keep up that kind of pace without burning out? Without getting irritable? And depressed? How else can you find time for God? There are three keys

 

1) The first is in the small but quality quiet time spent with God each day. After that long hard day, Mark 1:35 says that Jesus got up while it was still dark and went off to be alone with the Father to pray. If you study the customs of Christ, he always finds time early in the morning to pray. The Lord's quiet time with the Father was such that it enabled him to stay so sharp every time and finish off each day with enough energy to wake up early the following morning. We need to ask God to empower us each day. We live in a busy, fast paced, stressful world. And we need God’s power to make it through each day. And I’m learning more and more not to be shy about asking for help from God.

 

William Booth, the founder of Salvation Army, was 19 years old when he decided to become a minister. And his Sunday school teacher encouraged him. But as a teenager his health was frail. And so his doctor said, "I don’t think the strain of the ministry would be good for your health. Maybe you should find another profession." But Booth prayed about it. He said, "Lord, this is something I really want to do. Give me the strength to be the best minister I can be." So he decided to go against the advice of the doctor. And he became a Methodist minister. And after that, he started the Salvation Army. And he lived to be 83 years old.

 

The little but quality time he spent with God that day resulted to a lifelong vocation and endless supply of strength and focus. The second key. . .

 

2) The second key you'll need to cope with the busyness of life and stay focused on your goal is to learn how to say no to others.

Many of you are burning out because the word ’no’ isn’t in your vocabulary. If someone asks you to do something, you’re like "Yeah, I’ll do it." And then when the time comes for you to do it, you say to yourself, "Why the heck did I agree to do this? I don’t have time for myself! I’m already way too busy!"

 

The Lord Jesus knew when to say no. In Mark 1:37, the disciples came to him and said, "Alright, Lord. The clinic should open by now. Everyone’s looking for you! Let’s get back to the village." But Jesus said, "No. Let’s go to our other branch. God’s got other plans for me."

 

Part of me wants to say, "But Jesus, these people love you! They want to hear your sermons! They want to experience your healing power. Why are you leaving them?" The answer is that God’s will was for Jesus to branch out and preach in other villages. And in order to be faithful to God’s plan for his life, he had to turn down opportunities. Sometimes, saying ’yes’ to God means saying ’no’ to people. So before you make commitments, you need to ask yourself, "Is this opportunity the best possible use of my time to do God’s will? Will doing this particular project help me to achieve my larger goal in life? Or is it merely an attractive distraction along the way?"

 

The late tenor Luciano Pavarotti shared that there was a time in his life when he wasn’t sure whether to be a music singer. Or a music teacher. So he asked his father, "Shall I be a teacher or a singer?" His father replied, "Son, if you try to sit on two chairs, you will fall between them. For life, you must choose one chair." Pavarotti went on to say this: "I took my father’s advice. And I chose one chair. It took seven years of study and frustration before I made my first professional appearance. It took another seven to reach the Metropolitan Opera. And now I think whether it’s laying bricks, writing a book-whatever we choose-we should give ourselves to it. Choose one chair." Learn to say no to others.

 

3) Coping with busyness to stay focused sometimes means knowing when to take a break. In Matthew 14:13, when Jesus heard that John the Baptist died, he said, "Time out! I need a break! I need to be alone for a little while." You have to know your own body. You have to know your own spirit. You have to know your limitations.

 

There’s an old story about a man who saw the great storyteller Aesop playing childish games with some little boys. He laughed and jeered at Aesop, and asked him, "Why are you wasting your time with such frivolous activity?" And as the story goes, Aesop picked up a bow. Loosened its string. And placed it on the ground. And then he explained, "If you keep a bow always bent, it will eventually break. But if you let it go slack, it will be more fit for use when you want it." People are like that too. Sometimes we need to let ourselves to slack up before the Lord. And allow God to minister to us his peace and his rest. Sometimes the best way to cope with the busyness of life is to get away from it for a little while.

Luke 5:16 says that Jesus often withdrew to lonely places to pray. And perhaps, some of you need to withdraw.

 

The past week, I felt so wiped out and felt weak. What was the reason? I realized that I have been packing up so much activities in my day and specially on weekends. I had to pause and ask, “Why am I killing myself?” “Why do I pack Sundays with so much activities that I could actually miss God’s voice?” I need my time out with him.

The story of two sisters Mary and Martha in Luke 10L37-42 should help us all to focus on our goal, "37Jesus and his disciples were on their way, he came to a village where a woman named Martha opened her home to him. 39She had a sister called Mary, who sat at the Lord's feet listening to what he said. 40But Martha was distracted by all the preparations that had to be made. She came to him and asked, "Lord, don't you care that my sister has left me to do the work by myself? Tell her to help me!"
41"Martha, Martha," the Lord answered, "you are worried and upset about many things, 42but only one thing is needed. Mary has chosen what is better, and it will not be taken away from her."

 

When was the last time you went slack before the Lord? And just melted in his presence?

Have a quiet time, learn to say 'no', and take a break before the Lord.

 

Start now by finding a quiet place and have your quiet time with God.

patriotic curb appeal

 

A cheerful bit of curb appeal in the neighborhood.

ciao! Fabiana

polished brass for the powder room

love how the golden brass details look in our powder room

ciao! Fabiana

More on small targets on the beach.

These small metal detecting finds demonstrate the patience needed to locate and recover small targets on the beach.  

I remember being happy, and maybe a little frustrated to see these small targets coming off a beach with a little history. 
It is a beach used during the times of the Florida Seminole indian wars back in the early 1830s. 
I was excited to recover these small tacks and rivets, that probably had something to do with uniforms or boots.
All the finds in the photo were recovered using my Minelab CTX 3030 with the 6-inch search coil. 
I am quite sure other people had metal detected the eroded stretch of beach before, and only my small search coil and slow style of beach hunting allowed me to recover such small finds. 
I had recovered an 1836 gold coin in the area a few weeks earlier, which was the main reason I was trying my luck again at the same beach. 
If you do not think you would have been able to recover these small targets, it is time to experiment with test targets at the beach. 
When metal detecting times are slow, try testing a few tiny targets at the beach and put the tiny test targets in small plastic baggies so you do not lose them. 
Try different sensitivity or discrimination settings and see if you can still detect the test targets. 
It is surprising how many beach or water hunters never bother to test targets, you have to see what your metal detector is capable of finding on the beach.
If your metal detector is not able to detect the targets you are searching for, maybe it is time to try a different size search coil or even a new metal detector.
I like trying new metal detectors and search coils, just in case there is something new that is better than the equipment I use. 
Being a Spanish treasure hunter and modern jewelry hunter, I like to make sure I am using metal detectors and search coils that are hot on small gold and silver. 
Recovering small targets on the beach and in the water, gives me the peace of mind to know larger targets are easier to find.
Dont sweat the big stuff, concentrate on the small stuff and the big stuff will find its way into your scoop basket.

The bond market's pessimism is vindicated

I've been a close observer of the bond market for over 25 years, and it continues to amaze me with its ability to see the future of inflation and real economic growth. 

I've been featuring the above chart for a long time, using it to argue that the market was quite pessimistic about the prospects for economic growth. My theory is that real interest rates ought to track the market's expectations for real growth, and indeed they have. Real growth and growth expectations were very strong in the late 1990s, and real yields on TIPS were very high. Since then, the economy has slowed down and real yields have fallen. 5-yr real yields on TIPS have been telling us for the past year that the market was braced for real economic growth to be as low as 1% or so. With today's revision to Q1/14 GDP growth, real growth over the past 2 years has been an anemic 1.4%. In effect, the bond market saw this slump coming a year ago. Needless to say, if the economy's prospects are going to improve going forward, we ought to first see real yields on TIPS rise to at least 1%. 

The extent of the weakness in Q1/14 growth can be appreciated in the above chart. We haven't seen such negative numbers for real and nominal GDP growth without being in a recession. Yet I'm pretty sure we aren't in a recession, since the preponderance of evidence suggests the economy continues to grow, albeit relatively slowly: e.g., business investment is rising, bank lending to business is strong, residential construction is rising, unemployment claims are very low, jobs are growing about 2% per year, industrial production is rising, monetary policy is accommodative, government spending has shrunk meaningfully relative to GDP, the yield curve is positively sloped, and real short-term interest rates are negative, to name just a few. All of these are consistent with an ongoing business cycle expansion. The first quarter weakness was most likely a by-product of terrible weather.

We are very likely still in a recovery, but the problem—as illustrated in the chart above—is that the economy is more than 10% below where it could or should be if long-term growth trends are extrapolated. This is without doubt and by far the weakest recovery in history. I think the reasons for this weak growth are a huge increase in regulatory burdens (e.g., Obamacare), a significant increase in top marginal tax rates, a hugely burdensome, complicated, and distorting tax code, and the developed world's highest corporate tax rates. Accommodative monetary policy is probably a contributing factor as well, since five years of extremely low and negative real short-term interest rates have likely created disincentives to save. In short, the economy has been growing in spite of all the government's "help," not because of it. Lift the burden of a smothering fiscal sector and we'll most likely see a much stronger economy.

Help at Short Beach in Stratford

Good evening all,

Entering this season Stratford's Short Beach was not on the list of beaches for monitoring as it did not have Piping Plovers in recent years. However, we have a pair there this year that have successfully nested and as of today there are four hatchlings present.

CT DEEP is looking for some help this weekend at Short Beach during what should be a busy time - even a quick visit to check on them and if possible, educate some beachgoers, would be tremendously appreciated. CT DEEP is contacting the Town of Stratford to allow our monitors in free of charge. Thank you for any assistance you can provide! Remember we will also be looking for help on the evening of July 3 in Stratford, Milford and West Haven, so please let us know if you can join DEEP and AAfCW staff that night. Thanks again for all your efforts.

weekend visit to Geneva, Illinois

My husband was fortunate enough to have been brought up in the charming little town of Geneva, Illinois.  Last weekend, he had an opportunity to visit his childhood town and friends for a few days.  I have been there several times, but this time I stayed home to be a part of the end-of-the-school-year festivities here in California.  He knows how much I love the architecture, history and curb appeal of Geneva, so he photographed some of his favorite sites for me, and now I get to share them with all of you!  This first home is called Elizabeth Place and was built at the turn of the last century by Henry Bond Fargo, who was a a prominent figure in Geneva, and also served as mayor.  Isn't the Mission Revival style intriguing?   

 

the coach house 

this creek runs through the property

This Victorian  house is in town and has a colonial style entrance.

It's right next door to the Garrison's home, where they hosted this fun summer party. 

here is a peek at the inside of Mary's eclectic home... 

This is the home where "Mr.Ciao" lived his first five years...

and this is his childhood home, filled with so many fun memories and adventures.  His mother grew up in this same house and then bought it from her parents when she got married! 

here's another gorgeous black and white home...

a nearby place to hike to is this secret grotto in the woods.

Secret Shrine

Thanks for the inspiration, honey.  

I can't wait to visit Geneva again!

ciao! Fabiana

sharing with:    coastal charm

Wheels & Waves 4

It'll be back to surfboard pictures with a vengeance soon I promise, meanwhile it's still all about Pays Basque.....

The end of deleveraging: update

In a post three months ago, "The end of deleveraging," I noted signs that households' risk pendulum had stopped swinging in the direction of risk-aversion, and that the public was beginning to embrace risk rather than shun it. That had important implications for monetary policy, since the underlying rationale for QE, which in essence amounts to the "transmogrification" of bonds into T-bill substitutes, was to satisfy the world's seemingly unlimited demand for safe, short-term assets. If risk-aversion is on the decline and risk-taking is on the rise, there is no need for the Fed to continue QE. I think this explains why the Fed has been able to taper QE without there being any adverse effects on the economy or the markets. We don't need QE any longer, and the Fed is acting appropriately. 

The Fed has recently released pertinent data from the first quarter of this year which reinforces this view. What follows are some updated charts and commentary.

As the chart above shows, households' financial obligations (i.e., debt payments as a % of disposable income) reached a high in 2008, but have since declined significantly. Importantly, financial burdens are essentially unchanged in the past year. This means households have rebuilt their balance sheets and restructured their finances to the point where they no longer need to tighten their financial belts. Financial burdens today are as low as they have been at any time in the past three decades, and they are unlikely to decline meaningfully going forward. This is a very healthy development and it justifies the Fed's ongoing tapering of QE.

As the chart above shows, households' overall leverage (liabilities as a % of total assets) has declined significantly—by almost 30%—since hitting an all-time high in early 2009. Leverage is now back to levels that prevailed through much of the 1990s. All of the excessive speculation that helped fuel the housing boom in the 2000s has been reversed. This is also a very healthy development that is ongoing: household liabilities are no longer declining, but the value of households' financial and real estate assets are rising. This is healthy deleveraging, not risk-averse deleveraging.

As the chart above shows, as of Q1/14 the delinquency rates on consumer loans had fallen to its lowest level in decades. Consumers haven't been so careful with their finances for a very long time.

Gold prices, shown in the first of two charts above, have been relatively unchanged for the past year, even as tensions in the Mideast have risen. As the second chart shows, real yields on 5-yr TIPS have also been relatively unchanged for the past year. Both of these developments reflect a decline in risk aversion.

Capital goods orders—a proxy for business investment—were relatively flat for most of the past year, but in recent months (the most recent data, released today, cover May) have begun to rise. This is a good sign that corporations are shedding some of their risk aversion and are beginning to be more optimistic about the future.

PE ratios have been rising for several years, and are now above their long-term average, a good sign that risk-taking is beginning to come back into fashion. This is likely to continue, given all the other signs of the risk-pendulum swinging in a favorable direction, which means that there is still plenty of room on the upside for the stock market.

I should note that all of these changes are moving at a somewhat glacial pace—nothing dramatic is happening on the margin. It's all part of a slow but relatively steady improvement in the economy that is likely to persist until Congress adopts more growth-friendly policies.