Kamis, 31 Juli 2014

Tribute to Milton Friedman

I had the great privilege and the great fortune of seeing Milton Friedman in person quite a few times in the 1980s and 1990s, and I've read just about everything he's written. He was one of the most amazing and influential people I've known. His good humor, rock-solid logic, and clear thinking were simply astonishing. No one could beat him in a debate. 

Milton was all about freedom, a concept that to this day remains under siege from those who fail to understand how it works. Today, on the 102nd anniversary of Milton's birth, Mark Perry posted a wonderful collection of Milton's quotes. It's so good that I'm going to repeat it entirely, in the hope that it helps to keep the concept of freedom alive for the ages:

There is nothing as permanent as a temporary government program. 
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.
Inflation is caused by too much money chasing after too few goods. 
Sloppy writing reflects sloppy thinking. 
All learning is ultimately self-learning. 
I’m in favor of legalizing drugs. According to my values system, if people want to kill themselves, they have every right to do so. Most of the harm that comes from drugs is because they are illegal. 
Nobody spends somebody else’s money as carefully as he spends his own. Nobody uses somebody else’s resources as carefully as he uses his own. So if you want efficiency and effectiveness, if you want knowledge to be properly utilized, you have to do it through the means of private property. 
The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem. 
The Great Depression, like most other periods of severe unemployment, was produced by government mismanagement rather than by any inherent instability of the private economy. 
The high rate of unemployment among teenagers, and especially black teenagers, is both a scandal and a serious source of social unrest. Yet it is largely a result of minimum wage laws. We regard the minimum wage law as one of the most, if not the most, anti-black laws on the statute books. 
Industrial progress, mechanical improvement, all of the great wonders of the modern era have meant relatively little to the wealthy. The rich in Ancient Greece would have benefited hardly at all from modern plumbing: running servants replaced running water. Television and radio? The patricians of Rome could enjoy the leading musicians and actors in their home, could have the leading actors as domestic retainers. Ready-to-wear clothing, supermarkets — all these and many other modern developments would have added little to their life. The great achievements of Western capitalism have redounded primarily to the benefit of the ordinary person. These achievements have made available to the masses conveniences and amenities that were previously the exclusive prerogative of the rich and powerful. 
President Kennedy said, “Ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.”… Neither half of that statement expresses a relation between the citizen and his government that is worthy of the ideals of free men in a free society. “What your country can do for you” implies that the government is the patron, the citizen the ward. “What you can do for your country” assumes that the government is the master, the citizen the servant. 
On the difference between public vs. private education: “Try talking French with someone who studied it in public school. Then with a Berlitz graduate.” 
Fair’ is in the eye of the beholder; ‘free’ is the verdict of the market. The word ‘free’ is used three times in the Declaration of Independence and once in the First Amendment to the Constitution, along with ‘freedom.’ The word ‘fair’ is not used in either of our founding documents. 
What most people really object to when they object to a free market is that it is so hard for them to shape it to their own will. The market gives people what the people want instead of what other people think they ought to want. At the bottom of many criticisms of the market economy is really lack of belief in freedom itself. 
The great achievements of civilization have not come from government bureaus. Einstein didn’t construct his theory under order from a bureaucrat. Henry Ford didn’t revolutionize the automobile industry that way. In the only cases in which the masses have escaped from grinding poverty, the only cases in recorded history are where they’ve had capitalism and largely free trade. If you want to know where the masses are worst off, it’s exactly in the kinds of societies that depart from that, so that the record of history is absolutely crystal clear: that there is no alternative way so far discovered of improving the lot of the ordinary people that can hold a candle to the productive activities that are unleashed by a free enterprise system.
The problem of social organization is how to set up an arrangement under which greed will do the least harm; capitalism is that kind of a system. 
With some notable exceptions, businessmen favor free enterprise in general but are opposed to it when it comes to themselves. 
The case for prohibiting drugs is exactly as strong and as weak as the case for prohibiting people from overeating. 
The government has no more right to tell me what goes into my mouth [including illegal drugs] than it has to tell me what comes out of my mouth. 
For more Milton Friedman quotes, see this list here at “The Collected Works of Milton Friedman” project at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

Celebrations on the beach lead to good finds

On December 31st 2010 I was raising a glass of champagne with my lovely wife, on Jan 1st 2011 at 4am I was on the beach with my metal detector!  
By 5am I was picking this 18K gold beauty with 4 sapphires out of my scoop,  opposite a posh beachside hotel after a big new years eve party had taken place on the beach.


Nothing like a quick start to the new treasure hunting year lol!
A couple of hours later the beach was swarming with other people swinging metal detectors hoping to find gold, but I like to think the early bird got the golden worm.
This is the second nice gold bracelet I have found at this site, and both gold bracelets were found after celebrations had taken place at the beach the evening before.
Wether it is a new years eve, the 4th of July, or any other celebration that draws crowds to the beach, you need to grab your metal detector and go find some goodies. 
The earlier you arrive at the beach after the celebration has ended, the more chance you have of finding something special before the competition arrives. 
If the water is too rough to search, make sure you search the beach on the following high tides, yes that is not a spelling mistake, the following high tides. 
Jewelry and coins wash up onto the beach during the following high tides, sometimes several days after. 
Jewelry and coins do not wait around in the lower wet sand waiting for you to show up two hours before low tide. 
Do not miss the treasure boat by showing up a couple of hours before low tide,  other beach and water hunter's not watching the clock will have already beaten you to the punch.
When crowds are at the beach celebrating, try to hit the beaches that are more likely to be littered with champagne and wine bottles, instead of beer bottles. 
Although beaches in upscale areas see fewer crowds, they are far more likely to hold more expensive finds like the bracelet in the photo.
I have the local TV station to thank for giving me the incentive to go treasure hunting, showing people crowded on the beach drinking champagne, ready to light fireworks at midnight. 
Champagne, ocean and expensive jewelry, what could possible go wrong? 










The 2.1% recovery gives us 2.5% yields

We now know that the big negative GDP number in the first quarter wasn't the beginning of another recession (I didn't think so). Turns out it was a combination of bad weather and the vagaries of GDP accounting; sometimes those things just happen, and then they are reversed. As we learned yesterday, the first quarter's growth was revised to -2.1%, and the second quarter came in at 4%. For the past five years, the economy has grown at a 2.1% annualized pace, and that's pretty close to what we saw in the first half of this year after all the dust had settled. Ho-hum, not very exciting, and it still looks like the economy is moving forward at about a 2-2½% pace. Things aren't likely to get much better until fiscal policy becomes more growth-friendly. The one thing that could make things worse is the situation in Ukraine; European stocks have taken a 6% hit, and the Euro is 4% off its recent highs. The Vix index has jumped from 10.3 early this month to today's 16.7. The markets are nervous, so equities are down. But the fundamentals have not deteriorated, and there are still plenty of signs of growth, albeit of the modest variety.


The graph above shows the year over year real GDP growth of the U.S. economy. It's averaged only slightly more than 2% in the past five years, comparing poorly to the prior expansion, and especially poorly to the heady growth of the 1980s and 1990s.


This graph shows the 2-yr annualized growth rate, which smooths things out a bit and makes it easier to see how the current recovery pales in comparison to prior recoveries.



As the graphs above show, quarterly growth rates have been quite volatile in recent years, even though the economy has been plodding along in unspectacular fashion on average.


The graph above shows inflation as measured by the GDP deflator, the broadest and most comprehensive measure of inflation. It's been hugging 2% or so per year for the past two decades. Importantly, there is no sign of any dangerous flirting with deflation.


The graph above compares real yields on 5-yr TIPS to the 2-yr annualized growth rate of the economy. The two should normally move together, since the economy's growth potential is an important determinant of real yields, and the real yield on TIPS is the risk-free real yield that all other real yields should be compared to. With real yields on TIPS still in negative territory, it sends a message, I think, that the market expects real economic growth to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 0-1% for the foreseeable future. In other words, the current level of risk-free real yields is indicative of a market that is priced to a very pessimistic growth outlook. Compare today's yields to those that prevailed in the late 1990s, when real growth was a solid 4-5% and the bulls were in charge.


The graph above shows that over time the 2-yr Treasury yield tends to closely mirror nominal GDP growth. But in the past decade it hasn't, especially in the past 4-5 years. 2-yr Treasury yields are equivalent to the market's forecast for the average Fed funds rate over the next 2 years. The market has been very bearish on the economy's prospects, and willing to accept at face value the Fed's promise to keep short-term rates very low for the foreseeable future because the economy really needs help; that's why 2-yr yields have been so low for so long.


Short-term real interest rates are as low as they are because the market holds little hope for any meaningful economic growth. Nominal yields carry an inflation premium on top of real yields that is very much in line with what inflation has been for the past 15 years or so. There is no sign in the above graph of any Fed-induced distortion of interest rates. If the Fed were truly pumping massive amounts of liquidity into the economy, there would be plenty of evidence in the bond market of inflation fears and higher interest rates. But there's not, and the Fed isn't.


Ditto for 10-yr nominal and real yields. Long-term inflation expectations are very much in line with the past 15 years' experience. The bond market is not worried that the Fed will make an inflation mistake as it unwinds QE. Neither is the bond market worried about deflation. The main reason nominal yields are as low as they are today is the market's pessimistic expectations for real economic growth. Growth is expected to be low and boring for the foreseeable future, much as it has been for the past 5 years. That is why 10-yr yields are 2.5% and 2-yr yields are 0.55%.

Whether the market is right to expect growth to be low and boring, and inflation to be relatively low and stable, is the question that investors need to ask themselves.

I'm not worried about weaker growth, and although I expect somewhat stronger growth in the future, I doubt it will happen unless and until we get some relief on the fiscal policy front: lower and flatter taxes (especially a lower corporate tax rate!), and less burdensome regulation. The runup to the November elections should shed some light on this.

Rabu, 30 Juli 2014

What's driving the decline in labor force participation?



One of the distinctive features of the U.S. economy's current expansion phase is that it has been the weakest recovery ever. As the graph above shows, the economy is operating significantly below its long-term growth trend; if this were a typical expansion, the economy would have recovered to its trend growth path long ago. In fact, it's only grown at a 2.1% annualized pace from mid-2009 through mid-2014. Not only is growth slow, but the economy likely has a lot of unused capacity; because of that, national income today is arguably about $1.7 trillion less than what it could or should be. 


The next most distinctive feature of the current recovery is the unprecedented decline in the labor force participation rate, shown in the graph above. Beginning in 2009, some 7 million people of working age have dropped out of the labor force or given up looking for a job. But why? One standard answer is demographics—the baby boomer generation is starting to retire. But demographics don't turn on a dime, they take many years to play out. In contrast, the current and ongoing decline in the labor force participation rate started rather suddenly in 2009. 


It may be a coincidence, but there was a significant change in fiscal policy that occurred around 2009 that might explain the decline in the labor force participation rate: a huge increase in government transfer payments. As shown in the first of the two graphs above, transfer payments (social security, medicare, medicaid, unemployment insurance, food stamps, disability insurance, veterans benefits, subsidies) rose from 17.2% of disposable income in September, 2008, to 20.1% of disposable income by September, 2009. In dollar terms, annual transfer payments rose by $300 billion, almost 16%, in just one year. Since then they have largely kept pace with the growth of personal income, and they are now significantly higher relative to disposable income than ever before. In my book, this ranks as a significant change on the margin that negatively affected people's willingness to work.

With the government paying people more than ever not to work, it should not be surprising to see fewer people willing to work. As the graphs above show, the labor force participation rate began to decline just after transfer payments rose to a new all-time high of 20% of disposable income. In the past decade, transfer payments relative to disposable income have increased by fully one-third, with most of that increase coming in 2008 and 2009. It's worth noting that the economy has not experienced robust growth for at least a decade.

With the government being generous to a fault, many folks apparently have found it easier than ever before to "drop out." 


One reason transfer payments reached unprecedented levels in 2009 was the Emergency Unemployment Claims program that Congress passed in 2008. Never before could people receive unemployment insurance benefits for so long—up to 99 weeks and even more. This program alone accounted for a $90 billion increase in transfer payment spending in the 12 months ended September, 2009. Spending peaked shortly thereafter, however, then declined by a $100 billion annual rate between early 2010 and  the end of last year, when the program expired. It's not contributing to transfer payments any more, but nevertheless they have remained historically very high. One out of every five dollars that consumers have available to spend is coming from the government, with no requirement to work.


Another reason that transfer payments rose is the increase in the number of people receiving social security disability insurance since the end of 2008. The growth in the number of recipients has declined in recent years, however, and has been relatively flat for at least a year or so. There are about 11 million recipients of this benefit, which totals almost $1000 per month on average, bringing the total annual spending to about $130 billion, or just over 5% of total transfer payments. Nothing significant changed with this program in 2008 or 2009, however, with growth in the post-recession years substantially the same as before. So it's not the culprit many think it is.


A 15% increase in the monthly food stamp benefits in 2009, plus a relaxation of the eligibility rules in April 2009, helped fuel a huge, 50% increase in the number of people receiving food stamps since the end of 2008. The average SNAP recipient gets about $125/mo., and the program is currently costing about $70 billion per year. That equates to about 2.8% of current transfer payments. In 2009, the increased spending on food stamps in 2009, relative to 2008, was about 40%, or about $20 billion per year. Not a big factor, but certainly a contributing factor.

Another big reason for increased transfer payments was the ARRA, over 75% of which consisted of an increase in transfer payments, much of which, in turn, came in the form of tax benefits, housing assistance, grants, and expanded entitlements that likely continue to exist.

One more thing: marginal income tax rates have increased in recent years, by a not-insignificant amount, especially due to the implementation of Obamacare, which imposes a 3.8% tax on earned income and another 3.8% tax on unearned income for those considered to be "rich." I know people in California who now face marginal tax rates as high as 74%. That is a powerful disincentive to work.

And as Milton Friedman taught us, "spending is taxation." Every dollar of transfer payments from the government is a dollar that comes from the private sector. More transfer payments drain more resources from the productive sector, and thus contribute to slow the growth of jobs and incomes.

I wish I could identify all the pieces of this smoking gun, but I am reasonably convinced that a significant increase in government transfer payments, combined with higher marginal tax rates, have created, on the margin, important disincentives to work, and that, in turn, is an important driver of the ongoing decline in the labor force participation rate.


Always good to get your jewelry appraised

Yesterday I learned the importance of getting any jewelry you find and think may be valuable appraised by a jeweler.
Back in 2012 after hurricane Sandy, I found several nice rings that made their way to the bank safety deposit box.
One heavy gold ring really stood out, at the time I found the ring I thought it had an old look about it , especially as it was found at a beach where a mid 19th century ship wrecked opposite.
Old stuff has been found on this beach when coastal storms have stripped the sand away from the base of the dunes. 
Although the ring was unmarked, I assumed the ring was modern because of the two diamonds. 
When I first found the gold ring I had a neighbor who used to work in a jewelry store take a look at it, 18 K gold with a 5 carat emerald, and probably a $5000.00 ring was the best guess.
Fast forward to yesterday and I finally got around to taking a few nicer rings recovered over the last couple of years for proper appraisals.
One of rings I had appraised yesterday was this nice ring, that I now wish I had made more of an effort to identify correctly.




I came away from the jewelry store with a totally different professional take on the ring, and I was wrong to assume it was a modern piece of jewelry.
It is an old 18 K gold ring dating back to the 1800s, with a really nice old piece of jade and two old cut diamonds. I am even happier with the $6500.00 appraisal! 
I have heard a few stories of people scrapping rings, and later finding out the ring was old. 
Obviously, I never gave any thought to scrapping this ring because I believed it was an emerald.
This experience has also shown me the importance of getting more gem stone savvy,  so I can better learn to identify colored stones mounted in recovered gold and silver jewelry.
I was also invited to sit in the back of the jewelry store and saw a couple of pieces of platinum and gold jewelry I had taken in, soldered and repaired.
Now my wife can wear the repaired jewelry without losing them like the unlucky previous owner. 
Nice bling is definately one of the perks of being a beach and shallow water hunter. 









Selasa, 29 Juli 2014

French and beachy bedroom details


a little Monday afternoon inspiration....
I fell in love with the romantic feel of  this beach house bedroom. 
it's filled lovely French country details and the subdued 
color palette reflects the colors of the ocean perfectly.
 I also love that the two bedside tables are 
mismatched and feature different lamp styles too.
Coral, sea shells, mercury glass and  vintage books 
make for  a pretty  vignette on a nearby bookcase.
 there's a consistent use of colors used inside and out,
as seen in this charming side gate with seashell wreath.
I love this patinaed blue against the natural sand-colored stone.

ciao! Fabiana

living room - monterey colonial style

 With its beautifully rustic Monterey Colonial style, 
this living room is cozy, elegant and chic. 
It's the perfect room to curl up in during a chilly night, or to
 relax in during the summer with french doors fully opened 
letting in the cool California evening breeze.
Designer/homeowner Michael Streit wanted to encompass the
style of homes you would find in Santa Barbara or Monetecito.
In this scheme, he wanted to include rustic qualities,
but with a contemporary edge, and was slightly influenced  by
the look of Ralph Lauren's Colorado ranch home.
a humorous antique sign is the focal point of the mantel
Both Michael and partner John enjoy collecting art and unique finds.
The antler chandelier was stained darker to bring out the richness in its form, 
and the two large horse paintings add movement and soul to the room.
Comfortable seating was a must in this kick-up your-feet room!
Beautiful doors open up to the private front 
courtyard and create a flawless indoor outdoor space.
You can visit Michael at his Laguna Niguel showroom, 
You may have visited this home in May,  as it was featured 
on the Newport Harbor Home Tour.  Photos via Doyle Terry.

ciao! Fabiana


Confidence rises to its long-term average


The Conference Board's July survey of consumer confidence came in much stronger than expected (90.9 vs. 85.4), and marked a new post-recession high, as seen in the graph above. I note that the July value of this index is now equal to its average since 1970. The current business cycle set the all-time low-water mark for confidence in February, 2009; from the depths of depression and fear we have now recovered to something akin to "normal." It's taken over five years to get back to normal, but at least things continue to improve.

From this it follows that we are no longer in a risk-averse recovery. As confidence returns, risk aversion is declining. We see evidence of this in gold trading at $1300, down significantly from its all-time high of $1900 three years ago. We also see it in real yields on TIPS now at -0.36%, up significantly from their all-time low of -1.77% 16 months ago. And in the S&P 500's PE ratio, which has risen to 18.1, somewhat above its long-term average of 16.6, and up significantly from its low of 12.2 in September, 2011.



Is the equity market in a bubble? Doesn't look like it to me. We'd need to see a lot more confidence, much higher PE ratios, and much higher interest rates.

Birds still hatching and growing

Even though we are now in the midpoint of the summer and the days are slowly getting shorter we are still having birds hatching all across our beaches. American Oystercatchers are about done with breeding for the season but the Piping Plovers are not as even in the last couple of weeks we have had more young hatch on multiple beaches. Common and Least Terns are at various stages of development with adults and juveniles leaving breeding areas and dispersing while others are just seeing their young hatch now.

Here are a couple photos from Ewa Holland of hatchling Least Terns from this weekend.



This is a Least Tern juvenile that Ewa photographed as well.


Let's stay vigilant and persistent with monitoring and keep on helping all of these "late" birds grow up and leave the nest as we head into August!

Well known beach and water hunter's.

If you go to the same beach and metal detect the same areas every time you go metal detecting, you are going to be well known, but probably not for finding jewelry and coins.
When you have been beach or water hunting for a few years, you get to see people searching the same sites all the time. 
You also get to see many other beach or water hunter's show up to metal detect two hours before low tide, I can set my clock to some local beach and water hunter's. 
My platinum, gold and diamond finds from yesterday, show that there is jewelry and coins to find on almost any beach you take your metal detector to. 


These three gold rings add up to a combined weight of 0.6 ounce, a good return in scrap gold for a three hour water hunt.  The platinum and diamond ring (not in photo) has to be worth several thousand dollars, an upcoming appraisal will verify that. 
I never saw another person metal detecting yesterday morning, probably because everyone else with a metal detector headed to the same place everyone else is seen metal detecting on a sunday morning. 
It still amazes me how people ignore small and less crowded beaches, especially on the weekend when most weekend warriors like myself are out metal detecting. 
If you are well known for searching the same beach site all the time, maybe todays blog will spur you to venture out and be less well known.
I have been moving around trying new beaches a lot this year, mainly due to poor beach hunting conditions on my favorite old Spanish shipwreck beaches. 
The few times I have been to popular tourist beach sites in south Florida, I saw the same faces searching the same sites, joined by many more people than before. 
Beach and water hunting is very monkey see, monkey do, meaning everyone wants to hunt the same areas, use the same metal detector, wear the same detecting gear and hope that gold will follow. 
It unfortunately does not work that way,  treasure is where you find it, not at the same place every time. 
The same applies to the wet sanders walking that straight line at low tide, or the water hunter's with the navy seal look walking the straight line in the deepest water every low tide. 
You have to mix things up,  and put some variety in your treasure hunting life to find jewelry and coins on a regular basis. 
So many beaches, so little time, far too much coastline to follow the metal detecting crowd to the same beach fighting over scraps. 





Senin, 28 Juli 2014

AAfCW 2014 Volunteer Update #17

This is the seventeenth weekly update by the Audubon Alliance for Coastal Waterbirds (AAfCW) for the 2014 season. Today's update includes reports of Piping Plover, American Oystercatcher, Least Tern and Common Tern from July 19 through 4:00 p.m. on July 28 with sightings of birds by volunteers and staff spanning that period.

Informational updates:

Tern numbers are increasing in many of our observations as they begin to disperse with adults leaving nesting grounds and juvenile birds finding their way around Long Island Sound. Please keep an eye out for them at all sites as they should be found nearly anywhere. Piping Plovers continue to disperse and migrate as well and please watch for any flagged or banded individuals, taking photos and all the information you can on the bird if you are able to spot one. We will soon be announcing dates for signage and fencing removal and would greatly appreciate all the help we can get - thank you!

Survey and monitoring updates:

Piping Plover
3 pairs, 1 adult, 3 hatchlings, 1 fledgling at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/19
1 pair, 3 adults, 4 hatchlings, 5 juveniles, 1 nest at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/21
4 adults, 14 juveniles at Milford Point on 7/21
1 juvenile at Shell Avenue Milford on 7/22
2 pairs, 2 adults, 1 hatchling, 3 juveniles at Harkness Memorial State Park on 7/22
1 pair, 2 adults, 4 hatchlings, 6 juveniles at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/22
3 adults, 14 juveniles at Milford Point on 7/22
4 adults, 3 juveniles at Bluff Point on 7/22
2 pairs, 2 fledglings, 2 juveniles at Mumford Cove on 7/22
10 adults, 4 hatchlings at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/22
1 adult at Long Beach on 7/22
1 pair, 7 adults, 4 hatchlings, 1 fledgling at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/22
1 juvenile at Shell Avenue Milford on 7/23
1 juvenile at Shell Avenue Milford on 7/23
1 adult, 2 hatchlings at Long Beach on 7/23
2 pairs, 3 adults, 2 juveniles at Sandy Point Stonington on 7/23
1 pair, 1 adult, 1 hatchling at Long Beach on 7/23
1 pair, 10 adults, 2 hatchlings, 7 fledglings at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/23
1 juvenile at Silver Sands State Park on 7/24
1 adult, 5 fledglings at Short Beach on 7/24
1 adult, 2 hatchlings at Long Beach on 7/24
2 pairs, 1 adult, 2 hatchlings, 4 juveniles at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/24
2 adults, 7 juveniles at Milford Point on 7/24
5 adults, 1 hatchling, 1 juvenile at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/24
1 pair, 2 adults, 3 hatchlings, 2 juveniles at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/25
1 pair, 2 adults, 3 hatchlings, 2 fledglings at Griswold Point on 7/25
1 juvenile at East Broadway Milford on 7/26
3 pairs, 2 hatchling, 3 fledgling at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/26
1 pair, 2 adults, 3 hatchlings, 2 juveniles at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/27
2 juveniles at Milford Point on 7/27
1 adult, 2 hatchlings at Long/Pleasure Beach on 7/27
1 juvenile at Milford Point on 7/27
1 adult, 2 hatchlings at Long Beach on 7/27

American Oystercatcher
1 pair, 1 juvenile at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/19
1 pair, 1 juvenile at Milford Point on 7/21
2 pairs, 1 juvenile at Milford Point on 7/22
1 pair, 1 juvenile at Harkness Memorial State Park on 7/22
1 pair at Mumford Cove on 7/22
1 pair at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/22
2 pairs, 2 hatchlings at Tuxis Island on 7/23
7 pairs, 1 adult, 7 juveniles at Sandy Point Stonington on 7/23
1 pair at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/23
4 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/24
1 pair, 5 adults, 1 juvenile at Milford Point on 7/24
1 pair, 1 fledgling at Vincent Island on 7/24
1 adult at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/24
5 pairs, 1 adult, 2 fledglings, 1 juvenile at Menunketesuck Island on 7/25
1 pair, 1 juvenile at Salt Island on 7/25
1 adult at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/25
6 pairs, 5 fledglings at Cockenoe Island on 7/25
1 pair, 1 adult at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/26
1 pair at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/27
3 pairs, 1 juvenile at Milford Point on 7/27
2 adults at Short Beach on 7/27
3 pairs, 2 adults, 1 juvenile at Milford Point on 7/27

Least Tern
15 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/19
14 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/21
9 pairs, 32 adults, 1 hatchling, 2 fledglings, 2 juveniles, 4 nests at Milford Point on 7/21
70 adults at Griswold Point on 7/22
4 pairs, 32 adults, 2 hatchlings, 4 fledglings at Harkness Memorial State Park on 7/22
11 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/22
8 pairs, 29 adults, 2 fledglings, 2 juveniles, 4 nests at Milford Point on 7/22
1 pair, 2 adults at Bluff Point on 7/22
10 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/22
14 adults at Long Beach on 7/22
17 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/22
3 adults at Shell Avenue Milford on 7/23
2 adults at Long Beach on 7/23
10 adults at Long Beach on 7/23
4 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/23
3 adults Silver Sands State Park on 7/24
1 adult at Short Beach on 7/24
8 adults at Long Beach on 7/24
53 adults, 2 juveniles at Milford Point on 7/24
14 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/24
40 adults, 1 hatchling, 2 fledglings at Menunketesuck Island on 7/25
1 pair, 12 adults, 1 juvenile at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/25
40 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/26
15 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/27
2 pairs, 46 adults, 2 hatchlings, 2 juveniles at Milford Point on 7/27
9 adults at Short Beach on 7/27
3 adults at Long Beach on 7/27
5 pairs, 40 adults, 6 hatchlings, 1 fledgling, 2 juveniles at Milford Point on 7/27
5 adults at Long Beach on 7/27

Common Tern
6 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/19
12 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/21
5 adults at Milford Point on 7/21
11 adults at Griswold Point on 7/22
9 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/22
3 adults at Milford Point on 7/22
1 adults at Bluff Point on 7/22
15 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/22
4 adults at Long Beach on 7/22
46 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/22
1 adults at Shell Avenue Milford on 7/23
1 adults at Long Beach on 7/23
1 pair, 12 adults, 1 juvenile at Long Beach on 7/23
2 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/23
2 adults at Silver Sands State Park on 7/24
4 adults at Short Beach on 7/24
7 adults at Long Beach on 7/24
28 adults, 2 juveniles at Milford Point on 7/24
1 adult at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/24
36 adults at Menunketesuck Island on 7/25
59 adults, 5 juveniles at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/25
20 adults at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/26
47 adults, 1 juvenile at Sandy/Morse Points on 7/27
27 adults at Milford Point on 7/27
38 adults at Short Beach on 7/27
2 adults at Stratford Point on 7/27
5 adults at Point-No-Point (The Seawall) on 7/27
3 adults at Long/Pleasure Beach on 7/27
10 adults at Milford Point on 7/27
3 adults at Long Beach on 7/27

This concludes update #17 through 7/28/14 as of 5:00 p.m.

Household net worth is up, not down

Over the weekend, the New York Times ran an article titled "The Typical Household, Now Worth a Third Less." It cites a study by the Russell Sage Foundation which claims that "The inflation-adjusted net worth for the typical household was $87,992 in 2003. Ten years later, it was only $56,335, or a 36 percent decline." I've since seen this article widely quoted, since its results are nothing less than shocking.

But is the claim true? I very much doubt it.

Consider the dramatic contrast to be found in the household net worth figures compiled by the Federal Reserve, which I have featured here almost every quarter for the past several years. My most recent post on the subject is here, and I highlight the graphs contained in that post below:




According to the Fed's data, total household net worth rose from $49.5 trillion in 2003 to $81.8 trillion as of March, 2014, for a 65% gain. I adjusted that for inflation (using the GDP deflator) and found that in today's dollars, total household net worth rose from $60.9 trillion in 2003 to $81.8 trillion, for a 34% gain. On a per capita basis, real net worth increased from $209.6K in 2003 to $255.7K in 2014, for a 22% gain. 

If per capita net worth in real terms increased 22% from 2003 to 2014, according to the Fed's data, how can the Russell Sage Foundation claim that real net worth for the typical household fell by 36%? Something's very wrong here, and it's not because of the changing number of people in the typical household. My money is on the Fed's data, which are much more comprehensive than the Russell Sage Foundation's data.

Moral of the story: don't believe everything you see in the newspapers. It is almost certainly the case that the typical household's net worth today is substantially more than it was in 2003.

Minggu, 27 Juli 2014

Point Julia


The entrance to Port Gamble - the bay - is marked by two spits.  The one on the east is Point Julia and is actually a recurved spit or a cuspate foreland.  The one on the west, below the town of Port Gamble, may have looked similar, but is now lost beneath the old Port Gamble mill site.  I'll come back to that in my next post.

AERIAL VIEW

Point Julia lies on the lands of the Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribe. It's a complicated feature due to the presence of a couple of small stream mouths, but the primary tidal marsh drains out through a narrow channel near the tip of the point.  It looks like there's been some fill added to the old berm and marsh and it's possible this has influenced the plumbing a little, but unlike its counterpart across the channel to the west, this one still works!




Cape Shoalwater

I'm falling a little behind, but wanted to post some photos from earlier in the month before they get so old that I just abandon them entirely - which sometimes happens.

Cape Shoalwater forms the northern entrance of Willapa Bay, but defining it precisely is tricky since it has been shifting north and shrinking rapidly for many decades. I guess the simple explanation is that the ebb tide channel that drains Willapa is migrating northwards - but just why this is happening and when it might change - is much more complicated.

AERIAL VIEW

Washaway Beach continues to wash away, at something like 100' every year. Because the retreating bluff is cutting through the street grid on a diagonal, it always tends to look sort of the same.  It's always cutting across the road at an angle, there are always a couple of houses on the brink. There are always trees falling over the edge and old water pipes sticking out of the beach.  A lot of homes have gone in since I first visited in 1990 - even since my last visit in 2010.

Washaway Beach:  March 2010

Just east of Washaway, the migrating channel intersects older Pleistocene sediments. The highway is trapped against the higher, more resistant ground here - since all that's left to seaward are a few resistant knobs and a lot or riprap (and the old box culvert that I assume went under the old highway before the road was relocated).

Considerable effort and money has been spent to protect the road along here, including a large groin built just to the west about a decade ago.  But the shore continues to retreat.  During the past decade or two, the spit to the east (Graveyard or Empire) has unraveled and the Corps has recently carried a large nourishment project near Tokeland.



Carole Radziwill's guide to animal print

 Some of us are obsessed with Carole's overall sense of style,
and now she has unveiled her newly renovated apartment.
The iconic tiger sofa is still the centerpiece of her decor,
 thankfully!
whether it's fashion or decor,
Carole rocks it every time! 
Back to her new decor...
a few hints of leopard on this cozy curved couch
 under the floating stairs are perfect
 details of the ovoid side table and well-worn sofa
upholstered in Scalamandre Le Tigre fabric 
 the view from across the room, and a peek at the butterfly table
  Carole showing of another newly acquired vintage table 
 Kristin, Heather and Carole shmoozing over Carole's new book,
talk of the new decor and books soon turns to   
talk of Aviva the cray-cray
{we'll discuss Aviva later, after the first reunion show!}
meanwhile, the elegant fabrics play off nicely 
with the quirky vintage accessories
The famous tiger sofa was a hand-me-down from her mother-in-law, Lee Radziwill.  
Here is a vintage photo of Lee's apartment. 
you know of course, that Lee is Jackie Kennedy's sister 
and a huge fashionista and style icon in her own right
with Aviva during more peaceful times
that sofa just looks good with everything.
a lesson from carole....
animal print is a classic!

ciao! Fabiana