the best toffee for valentine's day

B. toffee has just introduced a Limited Edition Glitter Mason Jar.  These make the cutest Valentine’s Day gifts ever!  Each glittery jar comes with 10-ounces of either milk chocolate toffee or dark chocolate toffee (my favorite is dark!)  And the gift is finished off with a handwritten hang tag.  These make the perfect gift for your sweetie, a favorite teacher, or your best friend. 

For a smaller, but equally sweet treat, B. toffee also offers customizable Valentine’s boxes for that can be personalized.

The Glittery Mason Jars are priced at $24.99 (plus tax & shipping.)  Orders must be placed by Friday, February 6th.  Please email orders to hello@Btoffee.com or call  844-EAT-BTOFFEE.  

Please visit btoffee.com for all the details 

and be sure to order early to ensure delivery by February 14th.  

 ciao! Fabiana

{This post is sponsored by B.toffee, however all opinions are genuinely my own.}

Full moon beach or water hunting

It seems like every month I am writing about full moon beach or water hunting, ummm I wonder why?  
Maybe its because more real estate on the lower beach is exposed during the extra low tides. 
These two 18th century shipwreck artifacts, are full moon Treasure Coast beach hunting recoveries. 

They were found about 50 yards apart, but on two different full moons, which happens quite a lot with me. 
I found two large Spanish military buckles from the 1700s on another beach, same site and one full moon apart. 
Once you recover an interesting find on an old shipwreck beach, you have a very good chance of finding more interesting finds at the same site in the future. 
The hand made bronze ship spike is curved but intact, with the arrow head point and thick square head. 
The lead disc is one end of an 18th century cannon projectile known as an "Angel" you can still see where an iron bar or chain attached to it.  The bar or chain with two end pieces would have been fired from a cannon to take out a ships rigging. 
Whether you are a modern jewelry hunter, or shipwreck artifact hunter, you should be howling at the full moon if you have any productive beach or water hunting sites. 
The last couple of years I have done really well hitting offshore coral ledges, finding a lot of old gold class rings, but unfortunately the coral ledges are now covered over in a thick layer of sand. 
This afternoon I was scouting locations closer to shore,  I saw some very interesting areas on the lower beach I intend to search this weekend. 
Another good thing about the full moon, is not having to turn your flashlight on at night. 
Nothing beats the glint of gold in the moonlight, unless of course its a Spanish silver reale. 

Walls of worry persist

The market is still climbing walls of worry, and that's a good sign.

As I see it, here's the bearish case for equities: The Fed is no longer "printing money" and is soon going to begin to raise short-term interest rates. The market has enjoyed a great party for years, but the Fed is about to take the punchbowl away. Equity valuations are stretched, and earnings reports are turning mixed. The energy sector has been savaged, and there may well be nasty ripple effects: layoffs and defaults. China is in a slump and over-burdened with debt. Europe is in another slump and no amount of QE is going to make things better. Countries all over the world are trying to devalue their currencies in the hopes this will boost exports—but that's a fool's game. Policymakers have run out of tools to stimulate growth; growth is likely to be meager for the foreseeable future. The market's enthusiasm is likely to founder on the rocks of slow-growth reality.

In contrast, here's what I think the bullish case for equities is: QE was never about printing money; it was mainly about transmogrifying notes and bonds into T-bill substitutes in order to accommodate the world's demand for safe assets. Confidence is returning, however, and demand for safe assets is declining, so ending QE was the right thing to do. The economy still has plenty of unused capacity, but growth has definitely picked up in the past year. Congress is very unlikely to raise taxes, and may even succeed in lowering them, especially for corporations. Regulatory burdens are more likely to lighten than to increase further. Even if interest rates start moving up soon, they will still be very low relative to inflation for a long time. Equity valuations are no longer cheap, but relative to the yields on safer assets, equities still look quite attractive. There are still plenty of signs that the market is cautious, and that worries are more prevalent than exuberance. Absent a recession—which looks unlikely—equities are likely to outperform most other asset classes because of their superior earnings yield.

Here's how I read some of the more important market-based tea leaves:

The chart above represents the yield menu that investors have to choose from. If you don't want to bear any risk, you are not going to earn anything on cash. Cash (and cash equivalents such as 3-mo. T-bills) yields zero because the demand for safety is extremely strong. The market seems indifferent between owning equities with an earnings yield of about 5.5% and owning cash, with a yield of zero. That can only be taken as a sign that the market is still quite risk averse.

Risk aversion can also be seen in the chart above, which shows that spreads on corporate bonds have risen meaningfully from their recent lows. When confidence and the appetite for risk are strong, spreads are tight; that is not the case today. But doesn't the recent rise in credit spreads signal a coming recession? I don't think so, since swap spreads—the best leading indicator of economic and financial trouble on the horizon—are still quite low. Systemic risk is low, but there's still a lot of worrying going on, and that makes for a healthy market environment. The time to get really worried is when the market is priced to perfection. As it was in early 2000, when the economy was expected to grow 4-5% per year indefinitely.

The chart above shows that the market has been climbing walls of worry (worry being quantified here by the ratio of the Vix index to the yield on 10-yr Treasuries) for most of the past several months. The Vix index is high, which means investors are willing to pay up for the relative safety of options. The 10-yr Treasury yield is quite low, which means investors don't expect the economy to be very strong.

The chart above shows that the earnings yield on equities is significantly higher than the yield on 10-yr Treasuries. This is a clear sign that the market worries that the outlook for corporate profits is troublesome, to say the least. During times of strong growth (e.g., the 1980s), the earnings yield was well below the yield on 10-yr Treasuries. The equity risk premium has been unusually high for several years, during which time equity prices have marched continually higher. It's been climbing walls of worry all the way up.

The chart above compares the earnings yield on equities to the price of 5-yr TIPS (I use the inverse of their real yield as a proxy for their price). When the price of TIPS peaked in 2012, that was a sign of extreme risk aversion: the market was willing to pay a huge price for the relative safety of TIPS, which are default free and inflation-protected. At about the same time, the earnings yield on equities was also at or near a peak, which reflected great distrust concerning the outlook for corporate profits. In the past few years, demand for TIPS has weakened and confidence in the future of corporate profits has improved. But both are still far from where they would be in "normal" times. The market has become less fearful, but it is still somewhat risk averse.

As the chart above shows, it's unusual for the earnings yield on equities to exceed the yield on BAA corporate bonds, as has been the case for the past several years. Bonds are senior in the capital structure to equities, so they should normally yield more, especially since they don't have the upside price appreciation potential that equities do. Today's level of yields suggests that the market is still willing to "pay up" for the relative safety of bonds.

The prices of gold and 5-yr TIPS have been declining for the past two years, as shown in the chart above. (Here again I use the inverse of the real yield on TIPS as a proxy for their price.) Yet both are still high from an historical perspective. The demand for these two unique assets has weakened as the market has regained some confidence in the future, but they are still relatively expensive. The inflation-adjusted price of gold over the past century has averaged almost $600/oz., which is half of today's price. The average real yield on 5-yr TIPS since 1997 is about 1.4%, which is substantially higher than their current real yield of -0.2%.

As the chart above suggests, the real yield on TIPS should tend to track the real growth potential of the U.S. economy. GDP growth has picked up over the past year or so, and real yields have moved higher, both of which are good signs. But real yields remain quite low relative to the almost 3% rate of real growth over the past two years. That's a sign that the market is dominated more by worries than by exuberance.

Blyn Spit

Driving along U.S. 101, most folks have seen this view up Sequim Bay. This is where the Jamestown S'Klallam Tribe is based and in the last few years they have provided some great places to enjoy the scenery. This view, from the tribal center, looks out over Blyn Spit. For years, I have been able to judge the higher tides as I drove past simply by noting how much of the spit was submerged.

This spit, shaped by northerly winds and waves on the southeastern side of the bay, is typical of small spits in relatively low energy areas (see previous post from Maynard's Lagoon on Discovery Bay). The lack of strong winds and wave run-up prevents the berm from growing as high as in more exposed locations. The lack of coarse gravel and perhaps, the lack of large wood (which tends to blow north and often doesn't build up as much as on these north-facing spits), may also contribute to the lower berm.

In this picture, taken at roughly Mean Higher High Water (MHHW), the spit has almost, but not quite overtopped. Many high tides wash over this feature, which probably doesn't rise more than 1-2 feet above MHHW, explaining why salicornia (pickleweed) dominates the berm ridge, not beach grass and other higher elevation backshore plants.

AERIAL VIEW

Someday, I'll head out to Travis Spit, a few miles north at the mouth of the bay, and post some comparison shots to show what a higher energy spit looks like.  For one thing, the berm is considerably higher and only very rarely would be completely submerged.

Maynard's Lagoon

The old railroad followed the edge of Discovery Bay, cutting across the salt marsh at the head of the inlet and isolating some small estuarine lagoons (maybe just one, originally) along the southwestern side of the bay. The old mill (Maynard's, I guess) sat along the railroad, perched on what was probably the original spit. A mill pond was created behind the mill at one end of the lagoon.

The mill had pretty much dismantled itself, but the remnants remained until NOSC (see below) went to work this fall and removed the old structures and much of the old fill. They dropped the elevations to more closely match the geometry of the old spits and they replumbed the small stream mouth and the estuaries.

AERIAL VIEW

This is a fairly sheltered site since it's tough to generate big waves in this corner of Discovery Bay, but there will still be enough energy to gradually rearrange the beach.  But the bigger story will probably be the riparian vegetation and the fringing marsh.

Walking the beach last Tuesday, there were a few pieces of the old timber structures, and the shape of the shoreline still mimics some of the historic fill, but in a few years, the human history will be almost entirely erased. (The photos were all taken the same day - the foggy one in the morning, the others on the way home).

For more about this project, and about the North Olympic Salmon Coalition, check out:

Lower Discovery Bay Estuary Restoration

Aleutian Juice Widowmaker Fins!

Very, very happy about this indeed. Ladies & Gentleman, these are the first rudders to come from a foray into the manufacture and sale of excellent hand crafted and surf proven fins. Dave Parmenter is the motivator behind this, and it's mainly his designs and deep template collection we'll be drawing on. The fins are being made by B.C. Rudders in Hawaii, and whole set up will be small scale, hand made and very cool.  These first examples are Dave's own widow maker design, and it doesn't get much more authentic than that. Solid 7.5" center fin, sidebites are single foil and 3" & change. Two colors as you see, $100 for the set. Email info @ foamandfunction.com if you're interested, and stay posted, we'll have more soonish (these things are being made by one guy in Hawaii) and there's going to be full fin run downs from Dave as well as a few collaborations with the usual suspects. Stoked!

Why I still like Apple

I've owned AAPL ever since 2002, and since late 2008 I have made numerous bullish posts on the company. Given yesterday's stellar earnings announcement—Apple set an all-time world record for quarterly profits—it's time to take yet another victory lap. I still own AAPL and have no plans to sell in the near future.

Here's the history of Apple's stock price (split adjusted). Astounding.

Even more astounding that Apple's market cap now exceeds the highest market cap Microsoft ever attained, and it is the reigning market cap champion of the world.

With a trailing PE of just under 16, AAPL is comfortably under the S&P 500's PE ratio of 17.9, especially considering all the cash it holds offshore (over $140 billion). Subtracting the cash, Apple's PE is a mere 13.6.

One reason the market has been relatively under-enthusiastic about Apple is that earnings had been relatively flat for the past three years—until now. First quarter earnings were almost 50% higher than in the year-ago quarter. Looking ahead, I think the market is still very skeptical that Apple can pull off further gains. How can a world record-holder in market cap and earnings keep racking up new records? That's the question investors are asking themselves. It's not easy to believe that Apple can remain on top forever. At some point they'll stumble, or a new product will blindside the company in disruptive fashion.

But for the time being, Apple still has upside potential. The Apple Watch will start shipping in April. To be sure, no one really knows whether it will be a must-have gadget or just a fashion accessory. I remember receiving my first iPad and thinking, "well, it's pretty impressive, but I'm not sure how I'll end up using this thing." It took awhile before great apps started appearing and the iPad started replacing laptops. I suspect the same thing will happen with the watch. 

Apple's laptops are still the best in the world, and their sales are growing at a time when PC sales are declining. The 27" retina-display iMac has no equal at any price, and is simply the most impressive computer on the market. The iPhone is still in the early stages of penetrating the gigantic Chinese market, and Apple will be opening dozens of new stores in China in the near future. The iPhone 6 and 6+ are the best in the business, and will undoubtedly get better in their next iteration. iPhones are out-selling much cheaper Android phones in every market. (Dirty secret: the Android OS has some severe limitations: it's much more susceptible to viruses, it suffers from extreme fragmentation, and only a fraction of the phones currently in use will ever benefit from future software upgrades, whereas nearly every iPhone will.)

Finally, Apple is a leading innovator in its field and has a deeply ingrained culture of design excellence. Moreover, Apple has figured out how to manufacture and sell some 76 million phones in just three months, all over the world, in addition to everything else it does. That's pretty impressive.

Changing beach and water hunting tactics

I try hard not to get stuck in a rut, by trying new equipment, search techniques or searching new areas. 
Sometimes I like to us a little discrimination, other times I will use no discrimination, whatever it takes to find what I am searching for. 
I would never tell beach or water hunters to only use one search mode, one metal detector, or to hunt one way, because beaches constantly change.  
Last year I went back to using pulse induction metal detectors to help me find jewelry on tourist beaches. 
The last time I met another water hunter while using a pulse in the water, he said I was crazy digging all targets so close to shore. 
Its understandable, using a pulse induction metal detector at a tourist beach is hard work. 
In my opinion, you have to really know your beach or water hunting sites to be an effective pulse hunter. 
The $10.000.00 Tiffany & Co platinum ring with 1.5 carat rock in this photo, says yes it is a little crazy to use a pulse induction metal detector at a tourist beach.

The expensive diamond ring was found last summer using my new waterproof Minelab SDC 2300, a metal detector that is perfect for cleaning out "Honey holes" at my favorite productive tourist beaches. 
I actually rely on my local competition using the same search modes and the same search techniques at every beach.
Same place, same day detecting, same metal detector, same style, same old same old. 
Last year I recovered a large variety of finds, by taking a chance and mixing things up on the beach and in the water. 
I found many different old finds, musket balls, bronze ship spikes, colonial coppers, and cut Spanish silver. 
At tourist beaches, I recovered big ticket diamond rings, gold chains and a Spanish gold escudo pendant. 
This year I will mix it up a little more and see what else I can cross off my beach and water hunting bucket list.
Beaches are constantly changing, but many beach and water hunters do not. 

downton abbey fashion show

The fashion show last night on Downton Abbey was breathtaking!  We got a few glimpses of a few high-society flapper looks with a bit of an art deco feel, especially with that first dress and the Cleopatra style hat.  I love the costume designs on Downton!  Anna Mary Scott Robbins really does her research and pays attention to details.  The models on this catwalk were wearing amazing 1924 fashions that had Lady Mary exclaim “Yummy!”  They use real vintage dresses when they can and restore and reinforce them.  They also pick up vintage fabrics and laces at Paris flea markets that they incorporate into their costumes.  And didn’t you love when Charles Blake gave Lady Mary a smirky nod when the wedding dress came out at the end?  I love just them together!  For more details, visit Downton Abbey.

ciao! Fabiana

home tour on Balboa Island

a little Sunday tour of this pretty Balboa Island home,

via BrandonArchitects.

ciao! Fabiana

Step outside the box

The mans platinum and diamond ring in this photo was found just inside the waters edge at a south Florida beach back in November 2013. 

I have noticed over the last few years that I have recovered just as many top shelf jewelry finds in the dry and wet sand, as I have in the water. 
So many nice pieces of jewelry in all areas of the beach, that I describe myself as a beach and water hunter. 
Many people prefer to just search one part of the beach, I prefer to search all three areas of the beach at my favorite jewelry hunting sites. 
Last year, my best three ladies diamond engagement rings were all recovered from the main three areas of the beach. 
Those main metal detecting areas are the dry sand, wet sand and water, now imagine how empty the wife's jewelry box would be if I only searched one area of the beach all the time?
People who only search one area of the beach, usually struggle when that one area is void of targets. 
A few days of rough surf will stop a water hunter from metal detecting, sanded in conditions with play havoc with wet sanders, cold days will deter people from going to the beach, effecting dry sanders. 
If you search all three areas of the beach, you can simply move to a different area if one or two areas are not so good. 
The morning I recovered the mans platinum and diamond ring, the dry sand and wet sand was pretty quiet. 
Moving into the water, the amount of targets increased as the sand that was pushed up onto the lower beach put targets within detecting range in the shallow water. 
There is always somewhere to search at the beach, if you are not a box hunter. 

a little purple cottage

Driving through old town Orange, I came across this little purple cottage, well it’s actually more of a periwinkle color, and I had to stop and take a closer look.  The plaque on the front says it was built in 1900.  I just love all the period details and the fact that they were not afraid to use some color to highlight the architectural charm.  

“If you're quiet, you're not living.

You've got to be noisy and colorful and lively.”  -Mel Brooks

Happy Saturday!

ciao! Fabiana

College Spotlight: Saint Anselm College

Today, I had the pleasure of meeting with two admissions representatives from Saint Anselm College for a presentation about their school. Saint Anselm College is located Manchester, New Hampshire, only about 4 hours from Manhattan. Saint Anselm, also referred to as Saint A's is a Catholic Benedictine Liberal Arts College with about 1,900 underclassmen. I will admit that I did not know as much about St. A's as I do with other schools, but after learning more today, this is a school I am eager to visit, and will recommend to many students in the future.

Saint Anselm is situated in the beautiful city of Manchester, on a picturesque campus in New Hampshire. The school is only 1 hour from Boston and the ocean, and only 10 minutes from the airport. This is a place that embodies what a true college community is all about. It attracts students who are eager to participate in a liberal arts education where they will be challenged, but supported by peers, professors, and administrators during their time there. Professors know their students very well and are always there to make sure they get the most out of their education. Below are a few facts about the school and the students that make up the Saint Anselm community.

There is a 90% retention rate from freshmen to sophomore year.

92% of students live on campus all four years.

86% of students stay on the weekends.

75% acceptance rate-- Average GPA for accepted students is 3.2, SATs are 1080-1220, and ACT is 25.

They are a test optional school, meaning test scores are not required to be submitted, unless the applicant is applying for nursing.

St. A's is a top 20 liberal arts school in the nation for return on your investment.

Although the sticker price is a little under $50,000, the average net price for families is only $23,000, meaning merit scholarships and  financial aid are readily available for all students.

Although they have many great programs available, one of their most competitive programs is nursing, which is at about a 35% acceptance rate. Unlike at some colleges, students will begin taking nursing classes freshmen year and will begin clinical work their sophomore year.

They have a 3-2 engineering program with multiple other colleges, including Notre Dame.

Finally, one very special aspect of Saint Anselm is their connection to the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP). In New Hampshire, Saint Anselm is the premier resource for individuals interested in contemporary political issues. As found in their literature, Saint A's was founded "on the premise that an educated citizenry is vital for a healthy democracy...and they created the New Hampshire Institute of Politics to provide a vibrant, innovative and non-partisan forum where men and women can explore, debate, and participate in all aspects of the American political process"

Almost every major national political race goes through the campus of Saint Anselm, where candidates will present and debate, giving their students VIP access to major players in politics. Interestingly, every president since JFK has spoken or has been involved in a debate at Saint Anselm. Finally, the college has recently established a partnership with Bloomberg to create nationwide polling systems.

All in all, this is a small school in a beautiful setting, full of students and faculty who truly care about one another and of improving themselves and the world around them. I personally highly recommend it as a school that students need to put on their radar! I hope this information was helpful, and as always, happy searching!

-Joseph D. Korfmacher, MA

the perfect gift for mom

Mother’s Day is a few months away, but it’s never too early to think about special things for my mom, especially with Valentine’s Day and her birthday coming up.  There is a fabulous Helen Ficalora store in Beverly Hills and I recently connected with them. Helen Ficalora creates beautiful and simple customizable jewelry, and they were so kind to send me a sterling silver “MOM” necklace.  It has become one of my favorite pieces to wear daily.  It looks great layered with other necklaces, or just on its own.  I wanted to share with you all these lovely options for mom.  These pendant charms come in yellow, pink and white gold and also in sterling silver.  Some even have diamond accents.  The best part about it for me, is they have the cutest grandmother pendants too!  My mom is Mimi, so that would be perfect for her, and the pink gold is so pretty! 

There are so many choices for mom

and also for the grandmother in your life 

These are some of my favorites and

I love the clustered look

Some of these gals wear Helen's initial charm.

I wear mine everyday!

Hot pink is Helen's trademark color, 

and you can see more of 

Helen Ficalora's style here on Pinterest. 

There are literally hundreds of choices.  

Please check out Helen Ficalora here for all 

the details and let me know what your favorite is!  

Fabiana