2/3 dari luas permukaan bumi ini adalah Laut. Coba pikirkan kenapa sampai begitu luas permukaan Laut itu? Mengapa bukan daratan yang lebih luas? Percaya atau tidak percaya pasti ada maksud dibalik semua itu. Dengan Lautan yang lebih Luas dibandingkan daratan, itu memungkinkan adanya ketergantungan yang besar akan kehidupan terhadap laut. Kalau diselami lebih dalam lagi maka kita akan memahami bahwa bukan hanya untuk kehidupan saja lautan itu ada, tetapi juga sebagai tempat dimana manusia itu dapat meneyegarkan pikirannya, menghabiskan waktu bersama keluarga disana.
Setelah kita coba untuk menyelamai makna dibalik lautan yang begitu luas, maka kita akan termotifasi untuk mencoba menghampiri lautan. Setelah kita menghampiri lautan maka kita akan melihat bahkan akan takjub melihat keindahan pantai yang tidak pernah kita lihat selama ini, apalagi kalau itu tergolong pantai yang teindah di dunia. Maka kita akan merasakan ketenangan, nikmat yang tiada taranya.
Jumat, 16 Oktober 2015
Kamis, 15 Oktober 2015
Inflation is a solid 2%
The big news today was not the 0.2% decline in the the September CPI. It was this:
Some 65 million retired and disabled Americans are about to be hit with a double whammy -- the Social Security Administration announced Thursday there will be no annual cost-of-living benefits increase in 2016 but there may be an increase in Medicare costs.
This happened because the year over year change in the CPI in the 12 months ended September was zero. But the real news is even worse, because inflation next year is very likely to be 2%. Why? Because it's averaged about 2% per year for the past 1, 5, 10 and 13 years, if you exclude energy prices from the calculation. Oil prices have fallen by more than half since mid-2014, and that is the primary factor driving CPI inflation to zero over the past year. Barring another big decline in oil prices—which looks unlikely given the 62% decline in active oil drilling rigs in the U.S. over the past year—the CPI is likely to continue growing at its long-term trend rate next year. If for no other reason than that the Fed wants the CPI to increase by at least 2%.
As the chart above shows, food and energy prices have contributed a tremendous amount of volatility to the CPI over the past decade or so, compared to the more stable "core" CPI.
The chart above plots the CPI ex-energy on a semi-log scale from early 2003 to the present. With the exception of a few years prior to and just after the Great Recession, prices by this measure have increased about 2% every year.
Going back to the core CPI, and calculating its annualized rate of increase over rolling 10-yr periods, we find that by this measure inflation stopped falling several years ago and is now averaging just about 2% a year. It may be premature to say this—especially since it goes strongly against the grain of current inflation expectations—but it's possible that the big secular decline in inflation that began in the early 1980s has run its course.
One reason the CPI is almost surely going to rise next year is the past behavior of housing prices. As the chart above suggests, the BLS' calculation of Owners' Equivalent Rent (which makes up about 25% of the CPI) tends to follow the rise in housing prices (as tracked by the Case Shiller index) with a lag of about one and a half years. The fact that housing prices are up 4-5% over the past year thus suggests that the OER will make a substantial and positive contribution to the overall CPI for most of next year.
So for those who depend on social security and disability payments for the bulk of their incomes—in addition to those who live on the near-zero interest rates on cash—2016 is very likley going to be a tough year, since their spending power is going to decline by about 2%.
Memo to Fed: it looks like you've been doing a pretty good job of targeting 2% inflation. No need to worry about raising rates whenever you feel like it. After all, savers could use some relief.
Rabu, 14 Oktober 2015
Still stuck in slow-growth mode
Not much to cheer about these days. The economy is still underperforming, with a lot of unused (human) capacity. But at least it is still growing—and simply avoiding a recession is a great thing, since it means that risky investments with attractive yields are likely to beat cash.
September retail sales were disappointing, but mainly because of falling energy prices. Strip out autos and gas stations and you find that sales rose 3.75% in the past year, exactly the same as their annualized growth over the past four years. The chart above shows that, as well as the potential magnitude of the general shortfall in growth (arguably as much as 15%) in the current business cycle expansion. We could be doing a lot better, to be sure, but continued growth is much better than another recession.
The August Producer Price Index suffered from the same energy-related impact. The overall index is down 4.1% in the past year, but after stripping out food and energy prices, we find that inflation at the wholesale level is running about 2%, very much in line with what we've seen for the past several years.
We're still living in a slow-growth, 2% inflation world.
That's actually remarkable, because sluggish growth and plenty of excess capacity should have resulted in years of very low or negative inflation, according to the popular but flawed Phillips Curve theory of inflation. Contrary to what many have feared, years of slow growth have not led to even slower growth or deflation. The analogy that says the economy is like an airplane approaching stall speed is not apt; neither is it instructive to worry that the U.S. may be following in the footsteps of the notoriously slow-growing Japanese economy. It takes a lot of effort (e.g., very tight monetary policy, as evidenced by high real interest rates, a flat or inverted yield curve, and soaring credit spreads, particularly swap spreads) to generate a recession in the dynamic U.S. economy.
Rather than worry that the economy is at risk of "slipping into recession and/or deflation," we should instead be talking about what needs to be done to allow the economy to grow faster. As I and most other supply-siders see it, the government basically needs to get out of the way and let the private sector do its customary magic. That boils down to cutting marginal tax rates (especially corporate tax rates!), simplifying the tax code, reducing regulatory burdens, and eliminating crony capitalism (e.g., the ex-im bank), among others. In essence, we need a Washington culture that trusts the market to fix things, instead of bureaucrats and agencies.
September retail sales were disappointing, but mainly because of falling energy prices. Strip out autos and gas stations and you find that sales rose 3.75% in the past year, exactly the same as their annualized growth over the past four years. The chart above shows that, as well as the potential magnitude of the general shortfall in growth (arguably as much as 15%) in the current business cycle expansion. We could be doing a lot better, to be sure, but continued growth is much better than another recession.
The August Producer Price Index suffered from the same energy-related impact. The overall index is down 4.1% in the past year, but after stripping out food and energy prices, we find that inflation at the wholesale level is running about 2%, very much in line with what we've seen for the past several years.
We're still living in a slow-growth, 2% inflation world.
That's actually remarkable, because sluggish growth and plenty of excess capacity should have resulted in years of very low or negative inflation, according to the popular but flawed Phillips Curve theory of inflation. Contrary to what many have feared, years of slow growth have not led to even slower growth or deflation. The analogy that says the economy is like an airplane approaching stall speed is not apt; neither is it instructive to worry that the U.S. may be following in the footsteps of the notoriously slow-growing Japanese economy. It takes a lot of effort (e.g., very tight monetary policy, as evidenced by high real interest rates, a flat or inverted yield curve, and soaring credit spreads, particularly swap spreads) to generate a recession in the dynamic U.S. economy.
Rather than worry that the economy is at risk of "slipping into recession and/or deflation," we should instead be talking about what needs to be done to allow the economy to grow faster. As I and most other supply-siders see it, the government basically needs to get out of the way and let the private sector do its customary magic. That boils down to cutting marginal tax rates (especially corporate tax rates!), simplifying the tax code, reducing regulatory burdens, and eliminating crony capitalism (e.g., the ex-im bank), among others. In essence, we need a Washington culture that trusts the market to fix things, instead of bureaucrats and agencies.
Selasa, 13 Oktober 2015
pumpkins on the porch
The Pumpkin
"Oh, fruit loved of boyhood! the old days recalling,
When wood-grapes were purpling and brown nuts were falling!
When wild, ugly faces we carved in its skin,
Glaring out through the dark with a candle within!
When we laughed round the corn-heap, with hearts all in tune,
Our chair a broad pumpkin,—our lantern the moon,
Telling tales of the fairy who travelled like steam,
In a pumpkin-shell coach, with two rats for her team!"
Big search coils and beach hunting
I am always singing the praises of medium to small size search coils for beach and water hunting, but that does not mean I do not like using large search coils.
The problem is finding a large search coil that can detect large targets at depth, but still have the sensitivity to detect shallower small targets.
The NEL 15 inch attack search coil I have been testing on an Excalibur II, has good depth on large gold bands and is sensitive to small shallow targets.
It has been a while since I used a large search coil on a Minelab Excalibur that I enjoy using, many large search coils false in the wet sand and in the water.
Using some large search coils, you have to reduce the sensitivity control to run smoothly on the lower beach, but when you reduce the sensitivity you often lose target depth and defeat the whole purpose of using a large search coil.
I am happy to say the search coil I have been testing only needs to have the sensitivity control reduced a little to run smoothly in the wet sand and in the water.
On the wet sand, the Excalibur II and 15 inch search coil runs at about the same sensitivity level as the 10 inch search coil, which is quite impressive.
This photo shows the size of jewelry you should be able to find using a large search coil at the beach if it is a good search coil, notice the small stud ear rings and the ear ring back.
How many people reading this blog find this type of small jewelry with a 10 inch search coil?
Extra large search coils are like pulse induction metal detectors at the beach, if you have the sites to use them you should do well.
I have several sites I know a 15 inch search coil and Excalibur combo will do really well, especially now I know the search coil can detect small shallow targets.
Detecting small shallow targets may not seem like a big deal, but it is to me as I search for small 300 year old Spanish treasure coins and thin modern diamond rings.
What use is being able to detect deep targets and cover more ground using a large search coil, if you walk straight over more valuable shallow targets.
Trying and testing out new beach treasure hunting equipment is exactly how you find out if something is going to work out for you or not.
If you can detect the small stuff using a large search coil, you will have no problem detecting the big stuff using the same large search coil.
The problem is finding a large search coil that can detect large targets at depth, but still have the sensitivity to detect shallower small targets.
The NEL 15 inch attack search coil I have been testing on an Excalibur II, has good depth on large gold bands and is sensitive to small shallow targets.
It has been a while since I used a large search coil on a Minelab Excalibur that I enjoy using, many large search coils false in the wet sand and in the water.
Using some large search coils, you have to reduce the sensitivity control to run smoothly on the lower beach, but when you reduce the sensitivity you often lose target depth and defeat the whole purpose of using a large search coil.
I am happy to say the search coil I have been testing only needs to have the sensitivity control reduced a little to run smoothly in the wet sand and in the water.
On the wet sand, the Excalibur II and 15 inch search coil runs at about the same sensitivity level as the 10 inch search coil, which is quite impressive.
This photo shows the size of jewelry you should be able to find using a large search coil at the beach if it is a good search coil, notice the small stud ear rings and the ear ring back.
How many people reading this blog find this type of small jewelry with a 10 inch search coil?
Extra large search coils are like pulse induction metal detectors at the beach, if you have the sites to use them you should do well.
I have several sites I know a 15 inch search coil and Excalibur combo will do really well, especially now I know the search coil can detect small shallow targets.
Detecting small shallow targets may not seem like a big deal, but it is to me as I search for small 300 year old Spanish treasure coins and thin modern diamond rings.
What use is being able to detect deep targets and cover more ground using a large search coil, if you walk straight over more valuable shallow targets.
Trying and testing out new beach treasure hunting equipment is exactly how you find out if something is going to work out for you or not.
If you can detect the small stuff using a large search coil, you will have no problem detecting the big stuff using the same large search coil.
Minggu, 11 Oktober 2015
A Day At The Beach Sideburn style....
Brilliant, and here's a day in the snow Simmons style courtesy of the good folks at December Snowskates....
Sabtu, 10 Oktober 2015
yummy dessert ideas for fall
These cupcake creations are so cute and easy to prepare. Choose your favorite cupcake design here, and you’ll be sure to thrill your Halloween party guests. You can either decorate store-bought cupcakes or homemade cupcakes with these easy to follow recipes. The owls, black cats, pumpkins, and ghosts are all so adorable!
There's no doubt about it, pumpkin is just about everyone’s favorite fall flavor, and I just love it in desserts. My favorites in this mix are the Pumpkin Spice Crème Brulee, Pumpkin Cheesecake Bars with Chocolate Frosting, and of course, Traditional Pumpkin Pie. Check out the full list of dozens of amazing pumpkin desserts by Better Homes and Gardens here.
Mixed signals
Earlier this year I had an opportunity to go metal detecting in rural Iowa and experienced something that often happens at the beach in Florida.
I am talking about detecting multiple targets under your search coil, which can easily mask good targets you are searching for.
If you look closely you can see the two targets that gave me mixed signals, one is a common find at Florida beaches, the other is not.
The cow pasture I was searching in Iowa used to be the site of the county fair with hay rides and other fairground type attractions.
I decided to search towards the corner of the field close to a huge old oak tree, figuring people would have sat under the tree using it for shade back in the day.
My CTX 3030 easily detected the low tone of the aluminum pull tab, and I heard the high tone of the silver dollar as I swept my search coil over the area to help pinpoint the stronger low tone.
I was thinking gold ring not a stinking aluminum pull tab, but the sight of the large silver coin on edge still inside the hole made up for the disappointment.
Some of my best jewelry finds at the beach have come out of holes that contained more than one target.
An 1836 gold coin after first retrieving three bottle caps and an expensive diamond ring after first stopping to scoop several pennies.
I did not even have to sweep my coil over the hole in the pasture to detect the silver coin or use my pin-pointer, but I would have.
Double checking all your dug holes before walking away should be a natural thing, something you do all the time, so should filling your holes back in!
I have even recovered good finds checking other peoples holes left behind in the sand.
Anytime you see a large hole in the sand left behind by a sloppy beach or water hunter, check the area.
Beach and water hunters who have trouble pinpointing targets and filling holes, often leave good targets behind.
Multiple targets giving mixed signals under a search coil, double your chances of recovering something good like this 1922 silver Peace dollar.
lovely, affordable chandeliers & pendants
I have recently discovered a great source for lighting called “Parrot Uncle”. They have a huge selection of beautiful lighting fixtures and great prices! If you are looking for a particular handmade original design or if you are looking to redecorate a specific room, shopping for lamps and light fixtures is such an easy, fun and interactive experience on www.parrotuncle.com. They have gorgeous chandeliers, table lamps, floor lamps, pendant lights, and wall sconces. And, they have a huge variety of design styles too, like traditional, modern, mid-century, farm house and more! In addition to great prices and quality, they offer free shipping and free returns. Here are some of my favorite chandeliers and pendants. Just click on the name of the fixture for a direct link!
Drum Shape Brass & Crystal Chandelier with Fabric Shade
Modern Iron Pendant Light with Hemp Rope
Modern Style Wooden Pendant Light with Lantern Shape Shade
Rustic Industrial Style Pendant Light with Chrome Shade
Iron Chain 8 Lights Rustic Resin AntlerChandelier
Modern Style Polyhedron Shape Wooden Pendant
Vintage Industrial Style Pendant with MetalFramed Glass Box
Small Style Pendant Light with Bucket-Shape Shade
P.S. I just ordered the Modern Iron Pendant Light with Hemp Rope for my dining room! Will post photos soon!
ciao! fabiana
Kamis, 08 Oktober 2015
Point No Point
AERIAL VIEW
Cuspate forelands are triangular landforms that typically form where wave action approaches from two different directions. Longshore transport moves sediment toward the point from each direction, resulting in an accumulation of material and the growth of the feature. Sand and gravel may accrete on one limb or the other of the landform, or may be lost off the tip into deep water.
The Point offers great views of Puget Sound to both north and south. Mount Rainier and the high rises of Seattle are visible to the south. Mount Baker rises over Whidbey Island to the northeast.
Walls of worry update
Equities are up not because the market expects the economy to strengthen, but rather because the market is losing its fear of another recession. It was almost two years ago that I argued that avoiding recession is all that matters, and it is still valid today:
Cash and cash equivalents pay either nothing or next to nothing, while alternative investments yield much more. Cash yields are zero because the demand for money is extremely strong, and because risk aversion is very high. The Fed's QE program has been specifically designed to satisfy this extraordinary demand for money. The world eschews much higher-yielding investments in favor of accumulating record levels of cash because market participants are very afraid of an economic downturn that will reward the decision to hold cash.
We are still likely stuck in a disappointingly slow expansion for the foreseeable future. But that's a lot better than falling into another recession. This theme—that the future has turned out better than expected, despite the fact that it's been the weakest recovery ever—has appeared in numerous posts on this blog since 2009, and it's still the best explanation for why risky assets have done well. It's been a reluctant recovery and a risk-averse recovery for years, and it continues to be. When the market is priced to recession and instead we get continued growth, however weak, the prices of risk assets has to rise (i.e., the yield on risk assets has to move closer to the zero yield on cash). I don't see signs that this has gone too far. Indeed, yields on corporate bonds (especially of the high-yield variety) have become much more attractive of late.
What competition?
This diamond encrusted 18K gold chain was part of a four ounce haul of gold I recovered one morning a few years ago.
The tourist beach this bling came off is heavily hunted day and night, but luckily for me everyone says "It's all in the water."
It was still dark when I walked onto the beach, but several people were already beach and water hunting with headlamps on.
After a couple of hours I decided to move to a beach closer to home and made my way back to the point I had entered the beach.
As I usually do, I decided to search a few yards past the place I first walked onto the beach.
The gold chain was waiting for me and my quirky habit of searching a few yards past the place I walked onto the beach paid off, again!
It was still early in the morning when I hit the local beach, but not too early for other beach and water hunters.
Two guys were searching the wet sand and two people were water hunting, I figured I had put an hour on the parking meter I may as well stay.
I was squeezed in between the two water hunters searching in deeper water and the wet sanders.
My first signal in the water was a yard of 14K gold chain, 36 inches of gold wrapped around my scoop basket.
I put the 2.5 ounce gold chain in my finds pouch, turned my metal detector off and walked back to my van.
It may sound crazy, but I always wanted to do that, find something good and just walk off the beach lol!
Four ounces of gold chain in just over 2 hours of beach and water hunting, at two different heavily hunted beaches.
Now you know why I smile when people moan about competition, I have no competition as it is just me, my metal detector and a quest to find gold.
Which brings me to the point of this blog, the only competition you really have is the ocean and sand hiding the gold.
glamour shots for Halloween
Set up a spooky Halloween vignette in your home using black and white Hollywood glamour shots in distressed frames. These pretty black and white photos look spectacularly grouped together with a few sparkly Halloween accessories like silver beaded cobwebs and mercury glass candlesticks. Add a black feather boa for that extra zhush factor! This was originally taken at Roger's Gardens and features photos of the beautiful Yvonne DeCarlo. Do you remember what role she famously played on tv?
ciao! fabiana
Rabu, 07 Oktober 2015
Student loan bubble continues to inflate
Even as evidence mounts that households have undergone significant deleveraging in recent years, student loans continue to expand at strong double-digit rates (student loans are up almost 14% in the past year). As I wrote three years ago, the higher education bubble continues to inflate. Just as the housing crisis was fueled by government demands that banks make it easier for buyers to get a mortgage (e.g., no down payments, floating interest rates, interest-only mortgages, stated income), now we have the emerging student loan/higher education crisis that is being fueled by government demands that students have easier access to credit to finance their education.
In the chart above, we see that student loans started growing explosively in early 2009, after being essentially unchanged for the previous eight years. All of the increase in student loans since the end of 2008, almost $800 billion, was issued by the federal government, which has now essentially co-opted the entire student lending industry. The government has taken over and the mandate is to increase loans no matter what. Consumers in aggregate are deleveraging, but students are leveraging up, and many in a big way. As a percent of consumer credit, student loans are exploding skywards: up from 5.5% at the end of 2008 to almost 27% today.
This will inevitably end in tears for taxpayers, as well as for the students who have taken on onerous levels of debt. Colleges and universities will also suffer, since federal largesse in the form of a flood of new loans has enabled education costs to reach levels that are way out of line with the rest of the economy. Sooner or later, when the student loan plug is finally pulled, colleges and universities will find themselves forced to undergo the same painful restructuring and cost-cutting that devastated the residential construction sector some years ago. Meanwhile graduates are finding themselves burdened by huge levels of debt that many will not be able to service. Politicians are already greasing the wheels of a taxpayer bailout, rest assured. Debt forgiveness will take many guises, but in the end it will just be more "free stuff" that politicians promise in order to buy votes from the ignorant.
New regulations squeeze mortgage lending
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."
- Ronald Reagan
We don't often get the chance to see exactly how much harm is done by politicians and bureaucrats who "help" us by issuing burdensome new regulations that throw a wrench into the workings of the institutions (in this case banks) that make a living by actually helping us. Here's a chart which provides dramatic evidence that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's new, 1888-page TILA-RESPA rule (mandated by the notorious Dodd-Frank legislation), which went into effect October 1st, has had a huge impact on mortgage lending:
The chart above shows an index of new mortgage purchase applications (as distinct from refinance applications). Last week it jumped 25.5%—but that's hardly good news. What it means is that mortgage lenders were so terrified of the new paperwork, compliance burdens, and legal liabilities they faced as a result of this rule that they significantly accelerated the processing of new mortgage applications in order to get them in the pipeline before the date the new rule took effect. The rule is so burdensome and costly that many small banks and lenders may be forced to exit the business. Moreover, we're likely to see a huge decline in new purchase applications in the weeks to come, since any failure to comply with the new rules exposes lenders to liabilities of as much as $4,000 per borrower. Meanwhile, for the past year or so banks have been forced to hire expensive outside consultants to help them understand the new rules and revamp their systems and procedures. All of this just to "combine and simplify new mortgage disclosures."
This is just one example of how Dodd-Frank has burdened the financial industry, harming consumers in the process, all in the name of "protecting" consumers.
If you're interested in seeing how "hip" today's bureaucrats can be, take a look at how the CPFB whiz-kids attempt to explain in plain language what it is they're doing and why, here, and here. Sample: "'Why does it take so many pages to create something that’s supposed to be easy to use and understand?' This is a great question, one you’re not alone in asking — 1,099 is a lot of pages, as those of us who were involved in writing them can attest."
- Ronald Reagan
We don't often get the chance to see exactly how much harm is done by politicians and bureaucrats who "help" us by issuing burdensome new regulations that throw a wrench into the workings of the institutions (in this case banks) that make a living by actually helping us. Here's a chart which provides dramatic evidence that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's new, 1888-page TILA-RESPA rule (mandated by the notorious Dodd-Frank legislation), which went into effect October 1st, has had a huge impact on mortgage lending:
The chart above shows an index of new mortgage purchase applications (as distinct from refinance applications). Last week it jumped 25.5%—but that's hardly good news. What it means is that mortgage lenders were so terrified of the new paperwork, compliance burdens, and legal liabilities they faced as a result of this rule that they significantly accelerated the processing of new mortgage applications in order to get them in the pipeline before the date the new rule took effect. The rule is so burdensome and costly that many small banks and lenders may be forced to exit the business. Moreover, we're likely to see a huge decline in new purchase applications in the weeks to come, since any failure to comply with the new rules exposes lenders to liabilities of as much as $4,000 per borrower. Meanwhile, for the past year or so banks have been forced to hire expensive outside consultants to help them understand the new rules and revamp their systems and procedures. All of this just to "combine and simplify new mortgage disclosures."
This is just one example of how Dodd-Frank has burdened the financial industry, harming consumers in the process, all in the name of "protecting" consumers.
If you're interested in seeing how "hip" today's bureaucrats can be, take a look at how the CPFB whiz-kids attempt to explain in plain language what it is they're doing and why, here, and here. Sample: "'Why does it take so many pages to create something that’s supposed to be easy to use and understand?' This is a great question, one you’re not alone in asking — 1,099 is a lot of pages, as those of us who were involved in writing them can attest."
Selasa, 06 Oktober 2015
North Kitsap
So I'll post a few from some different spots with brief captions. I did something like this from a similar trip several years ago. Kitsap Bluffs: April 2009.
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| High bluffs in Indianola |
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| Doe Kag Wats - there's a big salt marsh behind that beach |
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| House perched on glacial till at Point Jefferson |
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| Typical bluff top development near President Point |
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We only saw one beach construction project all day - and it was this rock revetment being taken out! |
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| Unstable slopes immediately north of Kingston. The shoreline from here north for several miles is marked by deep-seated landslides |
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| More deep-seated slides - and a nice stretch of natural beach. In the late 1990s, much of this stretch was geologically active and several development projects failed |
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| The northeast end of Foulweather Bluff, where sliding appears to be occurring adjacent to some recent development. Note scarps above the bluff right of center. |