2% inflation is alive and well

The prevailing inflation meme is that it is dangerously low, and for years central banks have been trying very hard—without much success—to get it to rise. The reality—at least in the U.S.—is that the underlying "core" rate of consumer inflation has been running at close to 2% for over a decade. Energy prices have been the principal cause of variations from this trend. 

The chart above shows the 6-mo. annualized rate of inflation according to the CPI and the Core CPI (ex-food and energy). The experience of the past decade is a great example of why it pays to ignore big swings in food and energy prices. The core rate of inflation has been much more stable, and inflation according to these two indices has been exactly the same since 1986 (2.7% annualized per year). The core CPI is up 1.75% in the past year, and in the past six months it has risen at an annualized rate of 1.77%. It's very likely that the overall CPI will soon be averaging about the same rate.

If we look at the ex-energy rate of consumer price inflation (see charts above), it has averaged very close to 2% per year since 2003. The 10-yr annualized rate of ex-energy inflation currently registers 1.99%, and the year over year rate of ex-energy inflation is 1.84%.

Unsurprisingly, the bond market is very much aware of these underlying trends. As the chart above shows, the expected rate of CPI inflation over the next 5 years (as embedded in 5-yr TIPS and Treasury prices) is currently 1.89%.

The chart above shows the bond market's expected rate of CPI inflation over the next 10 years, which is currently 1.92%.

Inflation is not dangerously low. It is running just below 2%, and that's where it's been for many years and where the bond market expects it to be for at least the next decade. There is no reason for the Fed to be trying to boost inflation. 

Posted by Unknown

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